Is a Trump-Xi Summit Possible? The Political Impact of a Trump Victory on China

 

Is a Trump-Xi Summit Possible? The Political Impact of a Trump Victory on China

With Trump officially confirmed as the next US president and his inauguration date approaching, the fermentation effect of Trump's victory in China has shifted from various chaotic responses to a more realistic technical issue: Is it necessary for Chinese leaders to accept Trump's invitation and attend the inauguration ceremony on January 20 next year?

This choice has become a diplomatic dilemma for China, and is also one of the hottest topics in Beijing's diplomatic circles in recent days. Many officials have even privately placed bets on it, and their enthusiasm is no less than that on the eve of the US election.

Of course, Chinese foreign ministry spokespersons have so far avoided directly answering these questions. This dilemma, unsurprisingly, perhaps best reflects the overall dilemma and decision-making difficulties facing China's diplomatic department following Trump's election. They lack the resources to implement adjustments through a "Central Economic Work Conference"-style decision-making model, such as preparing at least partial plans for tariff and trade wars after Trump takes office. Even the decision of whether to recommend that leaders attend Trump's inauguration ceremony is left to the leaders themselves.

This is perhaps the essence of China's so-called head-of-state diplomacy. However, perhaps precisely because of this, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry, on the one hand, leaked that Chinese leaders would not attend Trump's inauguration, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, on the other hand, it initiated various covert communications, such as the unverified post-election phone call between Chinese leaders and Trump.

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