Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te delivered a speech on May 20th, marking the first anniversary of his inauguration. Regarding the ongoing Taiwan-US tariff negotiations, he quoted the Bible: "As iron sharpens iron, so a friend sharpens another." He did not directly mention China in his remarks, but in response to a reporter's question, he stated that aggressors are the destroyers of peace and that Taiwan should prepare for war to avoid it. He also stated that Taiwan is happy to engage in exchanges and cooperation with China as long as there is equal dignity.
In his inaugural address at the Presidential Office on the 20th, Lai Ching-te stated that Taiwan and its democratic partners around the world share the values of democracy, adhere to free market principles, and thrive together. This is Taiwan's greatest asset, a protective umbrella for Taiwanese businesses to unleash their vitality and energy, and the biggest difference between Taiwan and authoritarian systems. He stated, "For a long time, Taiwan, the United States, and our democratic partners have actively exchanged and cooperated, nurturing each other's growth. Friction is inevitable between friends, but it can ultimately be reconciled." He added, "Taiwan's economic path is clear. We will be market-oriented, promoting an economic path based in Taiwan, with a global presence, and strengthening the United States."
Lai Ching-te: Will provide "important national security briefing" to opposition party chairman
On domestic affairs, Lai Ching-te said that he is always willing to open his arms and work hard to promote dialogue between the government and the opposition and strengthen cooperation between political parties. Therefore, he will instruct the national security team to start planning and provide "important national security situation briefings" to the opposition party chairman. He hopes that the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties, regardless of their political positions, can prioritize national interests and safeguard national security as a prerequisite. On the basis of the same facts, they can exchange views frankly and sincerely, discuss national affairs, and work together to face the various challenges of the country.
Lai Ching-te's remarks did not directly mention China. When asked by reporters about maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, Lai Ching-te stated that he firmly pursues peace, arguing that aggressors are the destroyers of peace, and that many countries, including Taiwan, are coerced by aggressors. He reiterated his commitment to continuously strengthening national defense, preparing for war to avoid war and achieving peace. He also reiterated, "As long as there is equal dignity, Taiwan is happy to engage in exchanges and cooperation with China, replacing containment through exchanges and confrontation through dialogue, and moving towards peaceful and co-prosperous development."
Lai Ching-te's inauguration anniversary speech did not directly mention China: putting pressure on Beijing
Regarding Lai Ching-te's decision not to mention China on his inaugural anniversary, Yang Haowei, a senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes President Lai is aware that China often dissects his speeches in great detail. After labeling Beijing a "foreign hostile force" in March, he likely concluded there was no need to criticize China's pressure on Taiwan again in a harsh tone on May 20th. "On the contrary, if he could avoid mentioning China in his speech, it would put Beijing under a certain degree of pressure, making it uncertain how to respond to Lai's speech."
Yang Haowei believes that Lai Ching-te's speech not only allows Taiwan to prove to the international community that it is not the party that escalates tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but also puts pressure on Beijing.
Song Guocheng, a researcher at the Center for International Relations at National Chengchi University, said, "Unnecessary provocations are unnecessary, because if you don't call it a hostile foreign force, no one will consider the CCP a friendly foreign force. I think cross-strait relations are like athlete's foot: it gets better with medication, but it's never cured." "Cross-strait relations are like a chronic disease, requiring long-term treatment with mild medication."
Huang Jiezheng, associate professor at the Tamkang Institute of International Affairs and Strategy, said, "Is it because cross-strait relations have been lackluster over the past year, or is it because Taiwan's current surrounding environment makes it better to say less than more? He has his own calculations."
South Africa's pressure on Taiwan's representative office in South Africa raises alarm for Taiwan's diplomacy
Since Lai Ching-te took office, Beijing has continued to exert pressure on Taiwan, particularly in the military and diplomatic spheres. Taiwan's latest diplomatic warning came in the form of two letters from the South African government to the Taiwan Representative Office in South Africa, in October of last year and January of this year, requesting that it relocate from the administrative capital, Pretoria. In March, the South African Ministry of Foreign Affairs' website changed the name of the Taiwan Representative Office from the "Taipei Liaison Office" to the "Taipei Commercial Office" and listed it on a list of international organizations stationed in South Africa. The South African Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently removed the address of the Taiwan Representative Office in Pretoria and changed it to Johannesburg. Furthermore, South Africa has deleted the listing of Taiwan's current representative in South Africa.
Song Guocheng believes South Africa is being pressured and coerced by the CCP. "It (the CCP) uses a two-pronged strategy: one is inducement, the other is pressure." First, they downgraded Taiwan's representative office, changing its name and address, and ultimately, they may close it or expel it. "Perhaps, under pressure from the CCP, they will adopt even more blatant and overbearing measures against Taiwan."
“I think the South African case highlights China’s continued efforts to use its influence in Africa and the Global South to limit Taiwan’s international space,” Yang said. “This approach does have some effects, and it makes it more difficult for Taiwan to respond effectively in these countries.”
Taiwan's Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung stated at the Legislative Yuan on the 19th that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is handling the matter with great caution and will not consider the crisis over. The pressure remains, especially with South Africa hosting the G20 summit this year, which Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to attend. "We are on full alert throughout this year."
Another diplomatic warning for Taiwan came on May 13th when the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the China-Latin America and Caribbean Community Forum was held in Beijing. Two of Taiwan's diplomatic allies in Latin America, Haiti and Saint Lucia, also attended the meeting.
Huang Jiezhen believes that this may be an arrangement made by the two countries based on their national interests, which may be pressure from Beijing or pressure from their neighboring countries.
Song Guocheng believes that it is a consistent practice for the Chinese Communist Party to win over these countries, but basically the symbolic significance is greater than the practical significance.
