It's almost a month since the US announced its global tariff plan. Besides China, many other countries are engaged in ongoing negotiations with the US on tariffs. Yu Maochun, director of the Hudson Institute's China Center, reviewed the status of the US-China tariff war, arguing that China is dependent on the US and its current actions are merely rhetorical, with no theoretical or practical advantage for China. He predicts that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan would inevitably escalate into a total war, with the US inevitably joining. He also refutes skeptical claims that the US would sell out Taiwan for economic gain.
After US President Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan last month, he responded to China's retaliation by raising tariffs on some Chinese exports to as high as 245%. Yu Maochun, director of the Hudson Institute's China Center, delivered a keynote speech on US-China-Taiwan relations in the Trump 2.0 era at National Chengchi University in Taiwan on Monday (May 5th), reviewing the latest developments in the US-China tariff war. He stated that China is heavily dependent on the United States, and that its current retaliation is merely a show of tough talk.
Yu Maochun said, "I think China has no theoretical or practical advantage in the tariff war. The CCP's biggest characteristic is its tough talk. Xi Jinping ordered all Chinese airlines to refuse to accept Boeing parts and services, even passenger planes they had ordered. Boeing's stock price actually rose the day the news broke. Why? Because China can't produce the parts on its orders, and Xi Jinping also flies a Boeing 747. If you completely cut off Boeing parts and services to Xi Jinping, he'd have to fly a Chinese 919, which he certainly wouldn't dare. This shows that China's dependence on the United States is enormous, so it's shooting itself in the foot. The Chinese Communist Party is not only evil but also stupid. The only reason the CCP regime can continue is because there's no democracy or democratic oversight."
Yu Maochun refutes the skepticism about the US
Yu Maochun stated that during his first term, Trump recognized that the US's strategic approach of seeking common ground while reserving differences toward China was causing significant damage to US national interests. He subsequently shifted his China strategy, viewing China as the US's primary threat. Since returning to the White House, he has taken a tougher stance toward China, refuting skeptical theories such as the US using Taiwan as a bargaining chip.
Yu Maochun said, "President Trump is a deal-maker, but he will never accept a bad deal. He spoke directly with Kim Jong-un during his first term, but he walked away if the deal didn't satisfy him. The same is true with China. How could he possibly use the Taiwan issue to make a deal with China? It's impossible. When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) invaded Taiwan, every US president and law has opposed any use of force to change the status quo. Therefore, Taiwan's suspicion of the US is unbelievable to me and completely unfounded."
Yu: If the CCP attacks Taiwan, it will become a total war and endanger the internal situation.
Will the pressure from internal issues such as the tariff war and the economic downturn increase the chances of China launching a military attack on Taiwan? Yu Maochun stated that while China possesses a certain level of military power, it is difficult to control the Taiwan Strait, and an attack on Taiwan would be extremely costly and could even endanger China's internal situation.
Yu Maochun said, "If the CCP attacks US troops in Japan and Guam, do you still think that US actions against the CCP will be limited to the Taiwan Strait and the island chain? That's impossible. Once a war breaks out, it will be a total war. The destruction of the CCP's domestic military and political facilities will also be quite severe. If the strategic stalemate with Taiwan is also a problem, with so much resistance and economic problems within China, even if there is nationalist sentiment, do you think there will be no resistance if a war really comes? I don't think the CCP can withstand it."
Yu Maochun stated that the United States has no strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan, and that US-Taiwan relations will continue even without TSMC. He also stated that TSMC's investment in the United States is a way to diversify risks and integrate US and Taiwan technologically, strengthening US security guarantees for Taiwan. He believes that Taiwan has advantages in many areas internationally and should strengthen its defense capabilities and strive for greater international space. He suggested that Taiwan emulate Israel.
Yu Maochun said, "TSMC is a very important bargaining chip for Taiwan in the international arena, but it is not a sacred mountain that protects the country. Taiwan has a lot of room to strive for international opportunities on its own. For example, it can hold an international COVID-19 origin tracing conference in Taiwan, or a World Conference on Religious Freedom. Is it possible for Taiwan to form an alliance with neighboring countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan, called a joint maritime law enforcement alliance? If I really want to give an example, Taiwan can emulate and exchange ideas with Israel."
Should the United States "restrain" Taiwan? Yu Maochun: American think tanks don't understand Taiwan
Regarding an article by an American scholar titled "Trump Should Rein in Taiwan," which called on the Trump administration to "inhibit" Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, Yu Maochun stated that American think tanks are primarily staffed by scholars with diplomatic backgrounds who aim to improve US-China relations. Their calls for pressure on Taiwan demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of either Taiwan or US politics. He also stated that the existence of Taiwan's democratic institutions is a provocation to China.
Yu Maochun said, "Taiwan's provocation toward mainland China isn't about what its leaders say or don't say. Even if they say nothing, the CCP will still accuse them of provoking it. They want to create tension at this time, which actually benefits them. In fact, Taiwan's real provocation toward mainland China isn't about what its leaders say or don't say, but about the Taiwanese people—your mass recall, your elections, and this democratic mechanism."
He believes the so-called Taiwan issue isn't about whether Taiwan is part of China, but rather the conflict between autocracy and freedom, dictatorship and democracy. He also noted that the CCP often advocates for Taiwan independence, but the CCP itself isn't clear on whether the definition of "Taiwan independence" is Taiwan declaring independence or the reality that Taiwan already exists as an independent country. He believes the Taiwan independence issue is merely a pretext for the CCP to attack Taiwan.
