During the May Day holiday, Chinese state media outlets intensively released tourism data, attempting to portray a "bustling and prosperous" consumer scene. However, the true economic situation is difficult to conceal. A month into the escalating Sino-US trade war, the Chinese economy faces multiple pressures, including shrinking foreign trade, sluggish manufacturing, tight employment, and sluggish consumption. The gap between official propaganda and public perception is widening.
Chen Xiaoqin, head of a Shenzhen foreign trade company, told Radio Free Asia that with the US significantly increasing import tariffs on Chinese goods, many affiliated businesses have been unable to operate normally. She said, "American importers used to have spring orders for electronics backlogged until July, but now those orders have all gone to Vietnam. Even if we do receive orders, we have to transfer them to Vietnamese factories. Many factories in Guangdong have halted production lines. What do you think we should do? We're just waiting for the US-China negotiations." She also revealed that the company's owner is currently looking for buyers: "They're in talks, but the boss doesn't plan to continue trading."
Fang Zhi, head of a Wenzhou, Zhejiang business, also pointed out that the hardest hit economies are mostly those in southern China that rely on foreign trade. "Guangdong and Fujian are primarily foreign trade economies, and they've been hit hard. Factories and markets have closed, and everything seems deserted. If China and the United States can reach an agreement soon, that's fine. Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam can't replace Chinese manufacturing for the time being. If this continues for a long time, this industry chain will inevitably shift out of China, and once it does, it won't come back."
According to statistics, airlines' air cargo volumes have generally plummeted by approximately 30%. The Port of Los Angeles estimates that starting the week of May 4, arrivals will be down by one-third compared to the same period last year, with over 250,000 containers canceled in May.
Official data shows youth unemployment rate as high as 16.5%
Official data shows that China's urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2% in March, but the youth unemployment rate reached 16.5%. Many respondents reported a persistently sluggish job market, with the May Day holiday not only lacking a hiring boom but also seeing a significant number of job openings temporarily canceled.
On social media platforms like Weibo, Xiaohongshu, and Douyin, many young people expressed their struggles with finding employment. One female student (user: "nagging") said, "I'm a 2025 Master of Arts student. From last year's fall recruitment to this year's spring recruitment, all the way to around April, I still haven't found a job. I submitted about 8,000 resumes and attended all the fall recruitment fairs...but I still can't find a job after graduation."
Li Fanglin, a migrant worker from Nanchong, Sichuan, told this station: "There are many unemployed people here. Now if you want to find a job, there are no positions available. It's very difficult for men in their 50s to find a job. It's really hard to find a job."
Goldman Sachs recently released a report stating that if the United States continues to impose a 145% tariff, about 10 million to 20 million jobs in China will be at risk, accounting for about 3% of the country's labor force.
Mr. Zhu, an online businessman from Jiangsu, also said, "Business is tough. There's basically no business right now. Lately, while traveling on the train, I've heard nothing but curses everywhere, curses against the Communist Party. And that's just people chatting away. It's because they can't make money, and the government is corrupt. Everything is on display. Everyone knows that anti-corruption efforts are aimed at disobedient officials."
China quietly "exempts" US products
To prevent business closures and stabilize the industrial chain, the Chinese government has taken remedial measures. According to Bloomberg and Reuters, China has privately notified businesses since April, allowing tariff exemptions or deferrals on some US products. These include key materials such as pharmaceuticals, ethane, semiconductor equipment, and industrial chemicals, with a total estimated value of approximately $40 billion, representing nearly a quarter of total US imports in 2024.
Some analysts believe that Beijing's move is aimed at mitigating collateral damage to domestic companies, preventing production chain disruptions, rising inflation or industrial relocation, but the relevant policies have not been made public, indicating that the authorities are still trying to maintain a balance between external toughness and internal stability.
Huge crowds of tourists flock to May Day holiday, raising questions about consumer recovery
Xinhua News Agency reported that during the May Day holiday, the number of tourists nationwide reached 295 million, an increase of 28.2% year-on-year, and tourism revenue reached 166.8 billion yuan, returning to the same level as the same period in 2019.
However, netizens on platforms like Weibo and Xiaohongshu have widely questioned the data's accuracy. For example, the stranded tourist incident at the Tianmen Mountain Scenic Area in Zhangjiajie, Hunan, has drawn widespread attention. Numerous tourists posted accounts of queues lasting over eight hours to descend the mountain, with thousands stranded on the summit late at night, demanding a refund. The Zhangjiajie Culture and Tourism Bureau responded by blaming the situation on "sudden congestion" and did not address the issues of inflated ticket prices and insufficient transportation.
Furthermore, Baidu Index shows a significant increase in searches for "green trains" during the May Day holiday. Many passengers, facing rising high-speed rail fares, switched to cheaper but longer green trains. The reality for low- and middle-income groups, who "have the holiday but no budget," is starkly different from reports of "buzzing consumption."
The government increased fiscal stimulus but public confidence remained low
Meanwhile, state media continued to heavily promote May Day economic data. Xinhua News Agency, citing platforms like Meituan, Tuniu, and Tongcheng Travel, reported a surge in popularity for May Day holiday travel, with bookings and searches both seeing significant increases. The "2025 May Day Tourism Trend Insight Report" even suggested that travel demand could reach a three-year peak.
But Wuhan resident Ms. Zhang frankly stated that the May Day holiday atmosphere this year was far less festive than before: "I visited our local Walmart yesterday and didn't see many people. The once bustling Wangfujing (on Zhongshan Avenue) area is now empty, and there aren't many people either... The atmosphere is definitely not as good as before. Prices have gone up, even medicine."
