Two months into his presidency, US President Trump has made relatively limited public statements regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait, sparking widespread concern about the direction of cross-strait relations over the next four years. This Friday, the New York-based think tank Asia Society hosted a seminar, inviting scholars from the US, Europe, and China to discuss the future of the Taiwan Strait.
At the meeting, scholars generally believed that although many officials of the Trump administration had publicly expressed strong support for helping Taiwan strengthen its defense before taking office, what kind of Taiwan policy Washington will adopt next still needs to observe Trump's final position and attitude.
Jessica Chen Weiss, a senior fellow at the Asia Society and professor of Chinese studies at Johns Hopkins University, said: "The situation is still in a wait-and-see phase. The key is where the president wants to steer his policies next. Although senior Trump administration officials have clearly supported increased assistance to Taiwan in the past, their statements have been significantly lowered since the president took office, and their overall stance on China has become more muted. I believe this reflects that the president's current policy focus may be elsewhere."
Simona Grano, a senior fellow at the Asia Society specializing in cross-strait issues, also noted that President Trump is likely to use a "transactional" approach to determine Washington's ultimate stance on the Taiwan Strait issue. However, she emphasized that Taiwanese people should not worry excessively about their situation being compared to Ukraine.
Gao Ximing said, "For President Trump, US support for Taiwan depends on its value. So he might ask Taiwan to increase its investment in the US or demand technology transfer from TSMC... He might also negotiate with China, so it's hard to say what the direction of Taiwan policy will be. However, compared to Ukraine, Taiwan is far more critical to the US strategically, militarily, and economically, and I believe Trump understands this."
TSMC's $100 billion investment in the US could severely damage Taiwan, Chinese scholars warn
Earlier this month, US President Trump announced at the White House that TSMC would significantly increase its investment in the US, planning to build five advanced facilities in Arizona, totaling over $100 billion. This investment is widely seen as not only a symbol of deepening US-Taiwan technological cooperation, but also as a way to help Taiwan avoid high tariffs on its chip exports to the US. Furthermore, at a press conference discussing the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Trump stated that any military action by China against Taiwan would be a "disaster," emphasizing, "If anything happens in Taiwan, the consequences will be very serious."
However, at a seminar on Friday, Xinqiang, director of the Taiwan Research Center at Fudan University, warned that Taiwan is unable to refuse President Trump's request to transfer chip technology, nor can it evade the US tariff stick, so TSMC's relocation will only bring "severe damage" to Taiwan.
Xinqiang also pointed out that Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te's recent convening of a national security meeting was unwise, claiming that Beijing was "extremely dissatisfied" with this and might take further countermeasures in the future. He further stated that Beijing actually possesses a variety of tools to pressure Taiwan, and the reason it didn't use them in the past was simply to avoid harming Taiwan's "ordinary people."
Since TSMC announced its increased investment in the United States, despite TSMC Chairman Wei Zhejia repeatedly stating that "US customer demand is very high... the production line (capacity) to be built next year has also been booked," Taiwan's opposition parties and Chinese scholars have continued to hype that TSMC will eventually become "American TSMC," fueling suspicion of the US in Taiwan. Regarding this, American Institute in Taiwan Director Gu Liyan publicly stated on March 23rd that TSMC's expanded investment in the United States is in line with the US's expectation that Taiwanese manufacturing will help the US "re-industrialize" and replace Chinese supply chains in key industries such as robotics and drones. He also reiterated the US commitment to maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait.
Chinese scholars take a delicate stance at US conference, arguing they dare not represent Zhongnanhai
It's worth noting that Chinese scholars participating in US think tank events often face scrutiny from Beijing, ensuring their speeches don't stray from official positions. At this seminar, Xinqiang's moderate and conservative assessment of Trump and his criticism of Lai Ching-te for strengthening Taiwanese identity were also observed, demonstrating a delicate balance between not daring to represent the Zhongnanhai leadership and constantly echoing Beijing's position.
As previously reported by this station, last December, Gao Shanwen, chief economist at the state-owned SDIC Securities, questioned the falsification of China's official economic growth data at a seminar hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), a Washington-based think tank, suggesting that actual growth could be as low as 2% or 3%, far lower than the officially claimed 5%. He also questioned the government's ability to reverse the economic downturn. After the meeting, the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that Xi Jinping was furious with Gao's remarks and ordered an investigation and disciplinary action against him, as well as a ban on public speaking for an "unspecified period of time."
