Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted disease worldwide. Although infection with it is often asymptomatic and disappears spontaneously within two years in about 90% of cases, its persistence in some infected individuals may lead to the development of various types of cancer, most notably cervical cancer.
Virus-associated cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide, with approximately 660,000 new cases and about 350,000 deaths recorded annually.
HPV vaccines, proven effective in reducing the spread of infection and lowering the risk of cancer, are available in 147 countries and widely recommended by international health organizations. However, current vaccination programs focus primarily on girls, raising questions about their adequacy in completely eradicating the disease.
In this context, researchers have developed a new mathematical model to help public health policymakers design more effective vaccination programs. The model has been used to evaluate South Korea's national vaccination program and its effectiveness in controlling cervical cancer.
The researchers relied on demographic data and statistics on cervical cancer in South Korea during the period from 1999 to 2020 to predict patterns of human papillomavirus transmission among the population.
The results showed that current policies, while successful in reducing infection rates, are insufficient to completely eradicate the virus and related cancers. The Korean program, which began in 2016, covers approximately 80% of girls aged 12 to 17, in addition to providing annual booster doses to around 30,000 women aged 18 to 26.
The study concluded that including boys in vaccination programs, along with continuing to vaccinate girls, could be the decisive factor in eliminating cervical cancer.
Sooyoung Park, the lead researcher from the University of Maryland, said that cervical cancer is one of the few cancers that can be effectively prevented through vaccines, stressing the importance of assessing the adequacy of current government programs.
For his part, Abba Gomel, one of the study's authors, explained that current policies "contribute to reducing the number of cases, but will not eliminate the disease completely," stressing that the goal is complete eradication.
Researchers estimated that completely eradicating cervical cancer would require 99% vaccination coverage for women, but that vaccinating boys would reduce the need to reach this high rate. The study suggests vaccinating 65% of boys aged 12 to 17, while maintaining the 80% coverage rate for girls.
It is estimated that adopting this strategy could lead to the elimination of human papillomavirus-related cancers in South Korea within a period of 60 to 70 years.
The results of the study were published in the journal "Bulletin of Sports Biology".
