The rise in agricultural fertilizer costs, triggered by current tensions in the Middle East, threatens Africa's fragile food security.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Middle East's major oil and fertilizer producers to markets worldwide. Any disruption in this area quickly impacts global supply chains.
Natural gas, a key component in fertilizer production, has become more expensive since the start of the war against Iran on February 28, pushing fertilizer prices even higher. In sub-Saharan Africa, the impact could be severe.
Countries like Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Mozambique are heavily dependent on imported fertilizers, a large portion of which transit through these routes. At the same time, fertilizer use in the region is already among the lowest in the world.
Farmers in Port Sudan, a port city on the Red Sea coast in eastern Sudan, are facing increasing uncertainty. With rising fertilizer prices and dwindling supplies, many may be forced to reduce their plantings. This could lead to smaller harvests in the coming months and increased pressure on already fragile food systems.
“We already have difficulty obtaining fertilizers. If prices rise further or if supplies stop, we will not be able to produce enough food,” said Yaseen Ibnawf, a local farmer in Sudan.
For small farmers, rising prices translate into reduced use, which often leads to lower yields.
An economist warned of a "cascading crisis" as fertilizers become expensive, increasing the risk of famine.
“Supply disruptions, combined with rising energy costs, are making fertilizers unaffordable for vulnerable regions, increasing the risk of famine and economic instability. Sudan may find alternative markets to maintain production, but rising costs will impact agricultural supply and production,” said Mohamed Al-Nayer, an economic analyst.
According to experts, the consequences could extend beyond agriculture, affecting food prices, household incomes and national economies.
