The surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran is already reaching African economies, threatening fuel prices at the pump.
Africa imports most of the petroleum products it consumes, making many economies highly vulnerable to disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East, a central region through which global petroleum products transit.
Furthermore, as prices rise and African currencies weaken, many investors transfer their funds to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. This combination amplifies the impact of soaring prices on import-dependent markets, particularly in Kenya and Ghana.
This trend was already observed during the war in Ukraine, when rising crude oil prices and a weakening currency caused fuel prices in South Africa to climb by more than 25% in six months. Oil markets remain particularly sensitive to the conflict due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor through which approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil passes.
