Oil prices are experiencing an unprecedented surge, nearing $120 a barrel - a direct consequence of the war in the Middle East.
On Monday, the price of Brent crude from the North Sea, the global benchmark, surged 17.42% to $108.82 a barrel, after having exceeded $119. Experts described these unprecedented figures as a "very small price to pay."
A week of incessant bombing, continuing the conflict initiated on February 28 by the United States and Israel against Iran and then Lebanon, has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The British Maritime Safety Agency reports that around ten ships were targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on this waterway, which is crucial to the global supply of hydrocarbons.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Monday that the conflict in the Middle East could pose new risks to global inflation, saying that if oil prices rose by 10 percent and remained at that level for most of the year, global inflation would increase by about 40 basis points.
“We are seeing resilience tested once again by the new conflict in the Middle East,” Ms. Georgieva said at a symposium organized by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, adding: “My advice to policymakers in this new global environment is to think about the unthinkable and prepare for it.”
Sources within the French government indicate that discussions are taking place this Monday at the G7 regarding the release of strategic oil reserves in order to stabilize energy markets.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) listed on its website on Friday a total of nine attacks against ships in the strait in one week, including four incidents that left seven dead.
Seven deaths reported
The IMO stated that one person was killed in each of the three attacks on the ships Skylight, MKD Vyom and Stena Imperative on March 2, the same day the Hercules Star was also hit.
Between March 3 and 5, four other ships were hit: the Libra Trader, the Gold Oak, the Safeen Prestige, and the Sonangol Namibe. On March 6, four people were killed when the Mussafah 2 was struck. Indonesia announced on Sunday that a ship whose characteristics and last known position matched those of the Mussafah 2 had sunk two days earlier, but with a different death toll.
Jakarta reported three Indonesian crew members missing, one injured Indonesian survivor, and four survivors of other nationalities. The strait normally sees 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transit, but tanker traffic has plummeted by 90% in a week, according to the analytics firm Kpler, which operates the MarineTraffic platform.
According to MarineTraffic data analyzed by AFP on Friday, only nine commercial vessels (oil tankers, cargo ships and container ships) have been detected crossing the strait since Monday, some intermittently masking their position.
Rescuers targeted
The maritime security company Vanguard said the Mussafah 2 was hit by two missiles while attempting to come to the aid of the container ship Safeen Prestige, which had been hit by a missile two days earlier.
“Recent incident reports [...] indicate that ships providing assistance or conducting salvage operations to previously targeted vessels may also be at increased risk of subsequent strikes,” the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC), operated by a Western naval coalition, warned in a note on Saturday. “The observed pattern of strikes against ships at anchor, ships adrift, and assisting vessels indicates a campaign to create operational uncertainty and deter normal commercial shipping movements rather than a sustained attempt to sink ships.”
Drone and missile attacks claimed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are not always confirmed by independent sources—some are only confirmed after several days, and the ships involved are not always identified. The number of casualties can vary.
Iran exports its own oil via the Strait of Hormuz and its intentions remain unclear.
A general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on March 2 that Iran would "burn any ship" attempting to pass through the strait and block all oil exports from the Gulf. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday that his country had "no intention" of closing the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that he would escort merchant ships attempting to transit the strait "as soon as it is reasonable."
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that he was seeking to form a coalition to secure "sea routes essential to the global economy" in the region.
