The El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to return around mid-2026, according to a new UN update published Friday by the specialized United Nations agency for weather and climate.
The first signs observed in the equatorial Pacific even suggest a possible implementation as early as the May-July period.
This natural phenomenon is characterized by an abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It leads to large-scale disturbances in winds, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation patterns across the globe.
“Our latest update predicts the return of an El Niño event,” explains Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate forecasting at the World Meteorological Organization. “This will alter global temperatures, but also the distribution of rainfall on a planetary scale.”
According to climatologists, current signs indicate a potentially significant El Niño event. The WMO estimates that sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly in the equatorial Pacific, a classic indicator of a shift towards El Niño.
Contrasting global climate impacts
This phenomenon is generally accompanied by significant weather anomalies. Some regions of the world experience excessive rainfall, while others suffer prolonged periods of drought.
“We often see heavy rainfall in the Horn of Africa, southern South America, and Argentina,” explains Wilfran Moufouma Okia. Conversely, areas like Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia frequently experience drier conditions.
A phenomenon amplified by global warming
The latest El Niño event contributed to record global heat, making 2023 the second hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest to date.
The WMO points out, however, that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño, but rather that it exacerbates its impacts. The combination of this phenomenon and the accumulation of human-caused greenhouse gases intensifies temperature spikes worldwide.
A regular but closely monitored climatic pattern
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts from nine to twelve months. It alternates with its counterpart, La Niña, separated by neutral phases.
UN experts stress the importance of early forecasting to anticipate the consequences in sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy, and health.
