The dissolved Southern Transitional Council is proceeding with its intensive preparations to celebrate its ninth anniversary, which falls on May 4. This anniversary comes for the first time after its military defeat in the governorates of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra, and the loss of its influence and control over the government’s decision. Consequently, the different preparations for the celebration this year raise a number of questions about what it wants to achieve.
The most prominent of these questions revolve around the message he wants to send to the Yemeni government and Riyadh, and whether we should expect surprises in his marches during the coming week? Why has he repeatedly announced recently his refusal to integrate his militias into the government forces? Does he still control them? And can he regain control of them if he loses it? Why, unlike previous years, is the Transitional Council focusing on framing its founding anniversary this year as the anniversary of the popular mandate given to it as the legitimate representative of what it calls the Southern cause? Does he want to preempt the outcome of the Southern-Southern Dialogue Conference that Riyadh is preparing for?
“Re-establishing existence”
Writer and political researcher Mahmoud Taher told Al-Quds Al-Arabi, “The Transitional Council is not celebrating today from a position of strength, but from a position of need to reassert its presence. The early and intensive mobilization is not evidence of confidence, but rather an indication of concern about political and popular erosion after the blows it received this year.”
He points out that “the message he wants to convey to the government is that he still has a presence and mobilization networks, and cannot be completely erased from the scene.” As for his message to Riyadh, Taher adds, “it is more direct: if you are restructuring the southern issue through a comprehensive conference with multiple components, do not treat us as a defunct force.” He believes that “the occasion has transformed from a founding anniversary into an attempt at political revival and the reproduction of lost legitimacy through street protests, after the legitimacy of weapons and organization has declined.”
Taher: “The Transitional Council is not celebrating from a position of strength, but from a position of need to reassert its presence, and the early and intensive mobilization is not evidence of confidence.”
As for any surprises, if they occur, Taher believes they will be “carefully calculated, because the Southern Transitional Council no longer possesses the room for maneuver it once had, and it is unlikely to risk an overt military show of force, as this would be interpreted as a message of defiance to Saudi Arabia and the new political arrangements.” He added, “However, we might witness indirect military symbols, or a coordinated presence of former elements affiliated with the Council, with the aim of conveying the impression that its instruments of power have not completely disappeared. Nevertheless, it should be noted that its actual capacity for armed mobilization is no longer what it once was.”
He pointed out that “organizational disintegration, declining field control, and the departure of some leaders are all factors that make any parade more of a symbolic display than a demonstration of real strength.”
Regarding the Transitional Council’s repeated declaration of refusal to integrate its militias into the government forces, Taher believes that “the repetition of this refusal is an indirect admission that the issue of the forces is the last card of influence, because any real integration means the dissolution of the military bloc that formed its backbone.”
But the most important question is: Does he still control it? Mahmoud Taher says: “The realistic answer is: Control is no longer absolute, but rather eroded and varied. There are units and elements that are still linked to him politically or by loyalty, but the previous structure is no longer as cohesive as it once was.”
“Popular mandate”
Unlike previous years, this year the “Transitional Council” focuses on framing the anniversary of its founding as a commemoration of what it sees as its “popular mandate” as the legitimate representative of what it calls the Southern Cause.
According to Taher, “The focus on popular mandate is not just a mobilization slogan, but an attempt to revive an alternative reference to the new political legitimacy that is intended to be produced through the Riyadh conference, because the conference, as announced, aims to bring together the various southern components without exclusion, and to formulate a common vision that is not monopolized by one party.This practically undermines the idea of the exclusive representative on which the Transitional Council has built its project throughout the past years. Therefore, the Transitional Council is invoking the discourse of mandate, in order to withdraw legitimacy from any new component that announces itself with the support of neighboring countries.”
But “the problem is that this discourse clashes with a different reality, as popular legitimacy cannot be restored by slogans alone, especially after the divisions, setbacks and loss of field control. The scene today says that the South is entering a phase of redistributing roles, and the Transitional Council is trying not to be the first loser in it,” according to Al-Taher.
The "Transitional Council" is currently experiencing a state of confusion stemming from a fateful fear of facing the reality of its retreat to the back row and the loss of what it has become accustomed to and based its vision on.
In conclusion, the “Transitional Council” is currently experiencing a state of confusion stemming from a fateful fear of facing the reality of its retreat to the back row and the loss of what it has become accustomed to and based its vision on dealing with, which is leading what it describes as the “southern struggle towards secession.” This represents a shock to it, given its belief that it is capable of restoring its leadership presence at any cost, and in this it is betting that the street is capable of restoring it to its previous position; however, the street did not create for it what it was, according to observers.
The Transitional Council had approved the central celebration of its founding anniversary (May 4) through two events, the first in Aden on May 4, and the second in Hadramawt on May 5, in addition to events and marches in other southern and eastern governorates.
The Southern Transitional Council was established with Emirati support on May 4, 2017, headed by Aidarus al-Zubaidi, following his dismissal as governor of Aden. The council advocates for the secession of southern Yemen from the north.
On January 9, the Secretary-General of the Council, Abdul Rahman Al-Subaihi, announced the decision to dissolve the “Transitional Council” and close all its bodies and offices at home and abroad, following its military defeat in the governorates of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra.
Tags:
asiawest
