Despite attempts by the ruling coalition in Israel, headed by Netanyahu, to market a “victory narrative” to Israelis, about 60% of them believe that the war has not achieved any of its objectives, and they support the continuation of strikes on Hezbollah and Lebanon, which is fueling an internal battle that has been raging for days over public opinion.
In all opinion polls, a majority of Israelis believe that Israel and the United States have failed in the war, just as it indicates a decline in the popularity of Netanyahu, his party and his coalition, and this may push him to make a populist breakthrough attempt, such as attacking the Houthis or assassinating a prominent figure in Hezbollah.
According to a poll conducted by Israel's official television channel, 58% of Israelis believe the United States and Israel did not win the war, while only 25% said they did and that the war should have continued. Fifty percent said Netanyahu and Katz did not manage the war well, while 45% said they did.
In a poll conducted by Israel's Channel 12, only 30% of Israelis said that Tel Aviv and Washington had won, while 19% said that Iran had won, 40% said that no one had won the war, and 11% said, "I don't know." 45% believe that the war will resume within two weeks, once the ceasefire expires. When asked, "Do you support or oppose the ceasefire with Iran?", 53% said they opposed the ceasefire agreement, compared to 30% who supported it.
Many Israeli observers: We won the battle but lost the war.
In a Maariv newspaper poll today, 63% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome of the war against Iran, believing that the US and Israel had not achieved victory. As in the two previous polls, a majority of Israelis in the Maariv survey support continuing the war against Hezbollah until its objectives are achieved.
Coinciding with the ceasefire after 40 days of war and exchanges of fire that affected the home front and turned it into a central military arena, all polls show that Netanyahu’s coalition will fall in the upcoming general elections, as it does not exceed fifty seats out of 120, while the opposition reaches 60 or 61 seats, and the Arab parties obtain 10 or 11 seats (as separate parties, not as a joint list).
upset mood
The Hebrew newspaper Haaretz today focuses on the battle that has been expected for days over the narrative of the war, and therefore over the consciousness of Israelis, as it reflects in much of its content, as is the case in other newspapers, a general mood that is becoming more and more troubled inside Israel after a ceasefire agreement, and the continued sound of sirens and explosions that have not stopped, and the voices of Netanyahu, Katz and Kish are louder as they boast of “absolute victory”.
In an article published in Haaretz, former Foreign Minister and Police Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami argues that Israel won the battle but lost the war, accusing Netanyahu of misleading Israelis. Ben-Ami believes that the ceasefire agreement with Iran seals the strategic defeat suffered by the architects of this war, Trump and Netanyahu. He continues: “The military achievements are clear, but they also recall Colonel Harry Summers’s words in his book about the Vietnam War, when he tells a former Vietnamese general: ‘You didn’t defeat us on the battlefield,’ to which the Vietnamese replies: ‘That’s true, but we defeated you in the war.’”
Like Ben-Ami, prominent political analyst Ben Caspit of Channel 12 argues in an article published in Maariv on Friday that there are significant military gains in exchange for diplomatic failure, amid the loss of a strategic exit point, noting that the government is looking for a scapegoat to blame for the failure.
Churchill, World War I, not World War II
For his part, Haaretz editor Aluf Benn, in an article titled “Netanyahu Emerged from the War as a Churchill, But a Churchill of the Gallipoli Disaster,” argues that Netanyahu has become more politically embroiled in a crisis due to his war with Iran than at any point in his career since 2009. Benn states that Netanyahu believes he is a reincarnation of Winston Churchill and that the Iranians are the heirs of the Nazis. He points out that launching the war on February 28th was aimed at cementing Netanyahu's place in history as a prophet of doom who warned of the Iranian threat and succeeded in enlisting the might of the United States to resolve it.
Netanyahu has become more politically embroiled in trouble because of his war on Iran than at any point in his career since 2009.
He adds: “Netanyahu really did emerge as Churchill, but not in the battle for Britain during World War II, rather as the failed Minister of the Fleets in World War I, when he led to a military defeat at Gallipoli in Turkey.”
Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel believes that Netanyahu is witnessing a new escalation in the battle over the war narrative, attempting to retroactively reshape the war's objectives by claiming, "We struck, we destroyed, and we set our enemies back decades." Like many Israeli observers, Harel notes that Netanyahu, much like Trump, is trying to alter the stated objectives in an effort to fabricate a false image of the war's outcomes. He adds that the northern front presents a different kind of predicament, and that attacks on the Israeli home front are now becoming normalized.
It should be noted that the Ynet website revealed yesterday that Netanyahu is frustrated by the failure to market the “achievements” of the war .
A third war with Iran
Maariv newspaper's military analyst, Avi Ashkenazi, focuses on the divergence of American and Israeli interests: "The deliberations between Washington and Tehran will begin in Islamabad tomorrow against the backdrop of substantial military gains for Israel, but there is growing concern about the question of how far Washington's interests align with Tel Aviv's, and whether the truce will hold." He notes that Washington is pressuring Israel to stop the fighting on the northern front, while Israel is preparing a heavy hammer blow against Hezbollah.
Maariv quotes informed sources as saying that Israel is working to achieve two to five days of intense attacks in Lebanon before American pressure for de-escalation. It continues: “Currently, official Israeli statements indicate that the score is unsettled, and a decisive victory in the north will precede any political settlement.”
Former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked warns of a scenario that Israel must prevent at all costs. In an article published in the newspaper Israel Hayom, Shaked states that there are three red lines that Israel cannot compromise on: enriched uranium, centrifuges and enrichment mechanisms, and the Strait of Hormuz. She argues that conceding on any of these issues in future negotiations would lead to a third war in the near future.
