Under the title: “South Lebanon is the obsession of Lebanese strategists,” the French newspaper Le Monde said that the continued Israeli focus on South Lebanon and the Litani River cannot be understood only from the angle of current military developments, but reflects a deep strategic vision that has been formed over decades, where security, water and geography intertwine and feed each other in shaping Israeli policies towards this region.
The newspaper added that Israel views the Litani River as more than just a river; in its strategic thinking, it represents a potential defensive line that would keep threats away from its geographical heartland, especially given the presence of hostile armed forces in close proximity to its borders. Therefore, the repeated talk of establishing a "buffer zone" up to the Litani is not merely a temporary military measure, but rather reflects a long-term vision for reshaping the border region.
This perception, Le Monde continues, is fueled by a firm conviction within the Israeli military and political establishment that the current borders are insufficient to guarantee security, especially given the evolving capabilities of its adversaries, primarily Hezbollah. From Israel's perspective, the problem is no longer limited to infiltration attempts or isolated rocket launches, but has become a complex threat encompassing long-range missiles, drones, and a combat infrastructure deeply entrenched in border villages.
In this context, Le Monde explains that Israel is increasingly inclined to adopt a "preemptive" approach, based on shifting the battlefield into Lebanese territory rather than simply defending within its own borders. This approach is used to justify expanding military operations, even under ceasefire agreements, under the pretext of preventing the enemy from growing stronger.
The Israeli proposal to evacuate the areas south of the Litani River raises serious concerns that this policy could become a form of forcibly redrawing the demographic and geographic landscape. Such plans, if implemented, could open the door to a new phase of conflict, one that goes beyond mere military confrontation to a structural change in the nature of the region, Le Monde reports.
Le Monde went on to explain that the water dimension is no less important than the security dimension in Israeli calculations, as water resources have always been a crucial element in conflicts in the Middle East. In the case of the Litani River, its location and proximity to Israel make it a potential strategic resource, even if this dimension is not explicitly mentioned in contemporary official discourse.
Le Monde also observed that the continued invocation of the Litani River in Israeli political discourse, whether explicit or implicit, reflects the persistence of this idea in the background of strategic thinking, even as circumstances change. The issue is not so much a fixed plan as it is a mental framework that guides how Israel interprets its northern geography.
This Israeli perception clashes with a complex reality on the ground, where southern Lebanon constitutes an intertwined social and political environment that cannot be treated as a geographical vacuum, explains Le Monde, noting that the presence of Hezbollah, which is deeply rooted in the local fabric, makes any attempt to impose security arrangements from the outside fraught with risks and potentially counterproductive.
Past experiences, particularly the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon between 1978 and 2000, have demonstrated the limitations of military force in achieving lasting stability. Instead of securing the borders, such policies contributed to the emergence of a more organized and effective resistance, raising questions about the viability of repeating the same approaches in the current circumstances.
Despite its military superiority, Israel faces a real strategic dilemma in the north, which is how to deal with an unconventional threat that combines military, organizational and ideological characteristics. This is what pushes it to adopt offensive policies that may achieve tactical gains, but do not guarantee long-term solutions, according to Le Monde.
Despite its military superiority, Israel faces a real strategic dilemma in the north: how to deal with an unconventional threat that combines military, organizational, and ideological aspects.
The French newspaper also argued that the Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon cannot be separated from the broader regional context, where the confrontation with Hezbollah intersects with the conflict with Iran. Any weakening of Hezbollah is viewed in Israel as part of a wider strategy to curb Iranian influence in the region. This regional interconnectedness increases the risk of escalation, as it could lead to a wider conflict involving multiple parties and transform southern Lebanon into an open battleground that transcends its geographical boundaries.
Le Monde also observed that the absence of an effective Lebanese state in the south further complicates the situation, leaving a vacuum filled by unofficial forces and reinforcing Israel's logic of "self-defense." At the same time, this absence exacerbates the suffering of the local population, who find themselves caught between external military pressures and a fragile internal reality.
Israeli rhetoric linking security to the evacuation of residents raises legal and ethical concerns, particularly in light of international laws prohibiting forced displacement. Such policies could exacerbate tensions rather than de-escalate them, Le Monde argues.
The Litani River remains, ultimately, more than just a geographical landmark; it has become a symbol of a long-standing conflict between two opposing visions: an Israeli vision that seeks to reshape its security borders according to strategic considerations, and a Lebanese vision that sees this as a direct threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Caught between these two visions, southern Lebanon remains vulnerable to recurring waves of violence, in the absence of a clear political horizon capable of breaking this cycle, Le Monde reports.
