A wide-ranging journalistic investigation broadcast by Hebrew Channel 12 predicts that Israel will witness fundamental and dangerous changes when it reaches its hundredth year , becoming “a Jewish state on the verge of a theocratic state,” in which the number of secularists decreases and they become a minority, while the number of Palestinian Arabs and Orthodox Jews (Haredim) increases, while experts warn of a gradual collapse due to a possible rise in the emigration of elites from it.
Such estimates come against a backdrop of Arab and Islamic religious and mystical speculations that Israel will end in 2027, which are consistent with Israeli estimates that suggest it will not exceed its eighth decade, based on historical and political analyses indicating that previous Jewish states, such as the “Kingdom of David” and the “Kingdom of the Hasmoneans,” did not last more than 80 years .
According to an investigation by Israel's Channel 12, which aired in two parts, Israel will be embroiled in a serious and real existential crisis if tens of thousands of secular Israelis working in science and technology become disillusioned and leave the country due to aggression, tension, the ongoing state of war, and the high cost of living.
Israel will face a serious and genuine existential crisis if tens of thousands of secular Israelis working in science and technology become disillusioned and leave the country due to aggression, tension, the ongoing state of war, and the high cost of living.
The television investigation, which says that Israel will reach its centenary in 22 years, highlights the secular Jewish community, which is the largest bloc to date, and also includes broad categories of conservative traditionalists.
According to this study, titled “When Israel Turns 100,” the number of secular Israelis today exceeds five million, representing about half of Israel’s population. While their absolute number is expected to increase in the future due to population growth, their proportion of the total population is projected to decline significantly by 2048, due to rising birth rates among religious groups and increasing emigration.
Disputes within the same family
This investigation indicates that the sharp political polarization within Israel is no longer confined to the public sphere, but has begun to permeate family and daily life. In the Arieli-Melamed family home in Rehovot, political disagreements between the couple have become part of their daily routine, to the point that each cooks separately due to the deep tension.
Ilan, who is right-wing, blames the Tel Aviv protests against the “judicial coup” and the opposition for dismantling the army from within, while his left-leaning wife, Ronit, responds that blaming the left for the events of October 7 is an illogical claim, adding that any other prime minister would have demanded to resign immediately.
In the city of Modi'in, the Seroussi family experiences a similar division, even to the point of watching the news separately. Deborah says her husband watches whichever channel he wants when she's busy, and then she watches her own later.
The husband, David, believes that the real conflict revolves around the identity of the state: will it be a Jewish state or a civil state with a universal character? Meanwhile, his wife expresses her shock at Benjamin Netanyahu's continued rule to this day.
Fears of an increasing wave of migration
The investigation reveals that this internal division has led many Israelis to question their ability to continue living in the country in the future. Ilan states that he wishes most leftists would leave the country "so we can live in peace," while Ronit asserts that she will not feel a sense of belonging if the current government remains in power.
Internal divisions have led many Israelis to question their ability to continue living in the country in the future.
Israeli experts warn that this tense climate, coupled with economic and social burdens, could drive large segments of the productive class to emigrate, threatening the country's economic and scientific future.
Education… a crisis threatening the future
Israeli experts believe that the demographic challenge begins with the education system. The percentage of Haredi students has risen to 26% in the last year, although their overall percentage of the population today is about 15%, but their natural increase is very high (6%), at a time when most of them do not study core subjects, do not participate in international tests, do not work or serve in the army, and receive salaries and grants from the state, which makes them a burden on it.
In contrast, the performance of Israeli students in mathematics, English, and reading continues to decline to low levels compared to developed countries.
Professor Dan Ben-David, head of the “Shoresh” (Roots) Foundation for Economic and Social Research, warns, within the television investigation, that half of Israel’s children are receiving an education closer to that of Third World countries, adding that they will not be able in the future to maintain an economy, army, or health system at the level of First World countries.
He also pointed to the decline in the quality of education and teachers, and the low level of applicants for teaching positions, which deepens social gaps within the country.
Several Israelis who have emigrated to neighboring countries, particularly Greece and Cyprus, since the start of the war spoke with me. Their conversations revealed that political and social considerations underlie their emigration. These Israeli emigrants are seeking peace and tranquility away from internal conflicts, widespread aggression and racism, and a more reasonable cost of living compared to the high cost of living in Israel.
According to official figures, more than 82,000 citizens left the country in 2024, and a similar number are expected in 2025, while fewer new arrivals are expected. The difference between those leaving and those arriving in 2025 is approximately 57,000 people.
It is worth noting that prominent Israeli historian Professor Benny Morris, one of the leading “New Historians,” predicted a bleak future for Israel in 2019.
Regarding Israel's future as a Jewish state, Morris, in an interview with the Haaretz supplement, expressed pessimistic expectations, pointing to the demographic balance. He said the country is heading toward becoming a single state with an Arab majority, adding: "It calls itself a Jewish state, but the current situation, in which we control an occupied people without rights, cannot last in the 21st century. The moment they gain rights, Israel will cease to be a Jewish state; it will sink and its sun will set as a Middle Eastern state with an Arab majority. Violence between the population groups will steadily increase, the Arabs will demand the return of the refugees, and the Jews will remain a small minority in a sea of Palestinians, persecuted or slaughtered as they were when they lived in Arab countries. Those Jews who can escape to the West will do so."
When do you estimate this will happen?
On this question he said at the time: “The Palestinians look at everything with a comprehensive, long-term and historical vision, and they now see seven million Jews surrounded by hundreds of millions of Arabs, so they find no reason to give up because this situation will not last long, and they are obliged to win. After 30 or 50 years they will overcome us in any case
