US President Donald Trump and other leaders from some of the world's richest nations will meet in the French town of Evian-les-Bains, on the shores of Lake Geneva, from June 15 to 17, for the Group of Seven summit.
On paper, it seems that global security issues – the Middle East, Ukraine – and access to essential resources will be at the top of this year’s agenda.
But Cédric Dupont, professor of international relations at the Graduate Institute of Geneva, expects Mr. Trump to test the willingness of partners to support the United States in its long-term competition with China.
His agenda is to counter China. He is not so much interested in Russia, to some extent, as in how he can counter China and remain the dominant player," Mr. Dupont told the Associated Press.
China's exclusion from the informal club summits seems strange, however, given the considerable influence it now wields over the world's well-being and economic affairs.
Its economy, boosted by decades of growth since Mao's death in 1976, now eclipses those of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada, G7 member countries, and only the United States remains to catch up.
China's power has an impact on all G7 countries in multiple ways.
It sells far more goods than it buys, projecting a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, which is a source of friction with other industrial powers.
It controls the supply of essential rare minerals. Its technological advances and growing military power are giving its rivals cold sweats.
Finally, China is the world's leading emitter of pollutants that cause global warming.
All of this means that China will be an elephant in the room at the summit from Monday to Wednesday in the Alpine spa town of Evian-les-Bains.
As host, French President Emmanuel Macron has scheduled time for leaders to discuss how to rebalance trade with China, amid fears that soaring Chinese exports of cars and other products could ruin G7 industries.
Relations between Mr. Trump and the other G7 leaders have been poor lately - because of the war in Iran and other points of contention - but China could be an issue that unites them, said Cédric Dupont, an international politics specialist at the Graduate Institute of Higher Studies in Geneva.
"The hidden agenda is to try to figure out how to work, how to govern the world, without China," he said.
"They are concerned about security issues in regions like the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Russia and Ukraine. They are concerned about the technological race, AI, critical minerals. And they are also worried, a little less, but still a little, about the environment, about how to move from the brown economy to the green economy."
Analysts believe, however, that China's admission to the club could harm its cohesion, not only because Beijing's authoritarian system of government, its interests and positions on Russia, Iran and other major issues are not aligned with those of the G7 democracies, but also because its presence could test their long-standing alliances.
Mr. Trump's relations with other G7 leaders have had ups and downs - and, with European leaders in particular, more downs than ups since the launch, in February, of the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran.
Mr. Dupont also stated that the results in Evian could depend on Mr. Trump's mood and the reception he receives from other leaders.
If Mr. Trump does not feel that other heads of state are willing to help the United States, he might even leave earlier than planned or be extremely harsh on European leaders who are, you know, "losers".
The US president abruptly left the 2018 G7 summit in Canada after refusing to sign the leaders' joint declaration.
Meanwhile, French and Swiss authorities will impose a week of pandemic-style border restrictions for the summit starting Monday, as organizers fear potentially violent protests.
In Geneva, Switzerland, business leaders and local officials want to avoid a repeat of the violent protests that destroyed shop windows on the sidelines of the G8 summit in 2003, when Russia was part of the club of nations.
The protests surrounding these elite gatherings are nothing new.
This time, the activists want to demonstrate their frustration with Trump's leadership on issues as diverse as tariffs, the war in Iran and climate change, or to highlight his past ties with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the G7 summit that opens this week in France, the Egyptian presidency announced Sunday.
In a statement, the presidency indicated that Mr. Sisi is expected to hold a series of bilateral meetings during the summit, "including a bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump."
According to the same source, the discussions will focus in particular on "ways to resolve international geopolitical crises and to deal with their repercussions on trade, energy and supply chains".
