Meeting in Brazzaville for its annual general meeting, the African Development Bank (AfDB) forecasts a slight slowdown in the continent's growth in 2026, to 4.2% compared to 4.4% last year. The reason: the repercussions of the crisis in the Middle East on energy, fertilizer, and food prices. The institution also highlights a financing gap estimated at nearly $400 billion per year, against a backdrop of increasing pressure on African public debt.
Africa's economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 due to international geopolitical tensions. According to economic projections presented Tuesday in Brazzaville by the African Development Bank, the continent's gross domestic product is projected to grow by 4.2%, compared to 4.4% in 2025.
The financial institution attributes this slowdown to the crisis in the Middle East, which is driving up the costs of energy, imports, and agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers. Despite this downturn, Africa, along with Asia, remains one of the world's most dynamic regions, ahead of Europe and Latin America.
The AfDB, however, estimates that growth could rebound to 4.4% as early as 2027, provided that current geopolitical disruptions remain limited in duration. The report specifies that the actual impact will depend on the duration of tensions in global supply chains and their consequences for international commodity prices.
East Africa, considered the continent's main engine of growth, is expected to be particularly hard hit. The region is projected to experience a slowdown of more than half a percentage point, driven by rising energy costs and increased risks to food security.
Beyond the current economic situation, the AfDB highlights the structural weaknesses that are hindering Africa's economic transformation. The continent faces an annual financing gap estimated at nearly $400 billion, while several countries continue to grapple with worrying levels of debt.
The bank's annual meetings, held this year in Brazzaville, are largely devoted to mobilizing African financial resources to support the continent's development. Since assuming the presidency of the AfDB last September, Sidi Ould Tah has championed the NAFAD program, designed to increase development financing from African savings and capital, in a context of declining international public aid.
“Sustained and inclusive growth will require a substantial increase in investment,” the report emphasizes. According to Sidi Ould Tah, Africa will need to maintain a growth rate above 7% for several decades in order to create sufficient jobs and sustainably reduce poverty.
The Brazzaville meeting is taking place amid heightened health concerns, with some participants expressing worries related to the Ebola outbreak in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. However, Congolese authorities and the African Development Bank (AfDB) have assured that no cases have been detected in the host country and that the surveillance measures in place comply with World Health Organization recommendations.
