The Economist magazine published a report stating that the end of the war with Iran threatens a resounding failure for Israel, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will emerge from Donald Trump’s agreement with Iran without any strategic gains. This failure comes after a close and intensive partnership that began on February 28 and lasted for 40 days.
But with Trump and Iran’s leaders reaching an agreement this week that would extend the ceasefire and end the war, the nature of that partnership has changed.
Israel was excluded from the negotiations with Iran. Given the details of the agreement, of which Israel says it has not received a copy and of which only some outlines have been leaked, it addresses very few of its concerns.
The result for Israel, as described by one of its diplomats, is a "complete failure," and also a personal blow to Netanyahu.
The result for Israel, as one of its diplomats described it, is a “resounding failure,” and a personal blow to Netanyahu. He had invested considerable political capital in convincing the US president that a war with Iran could change the situation in the Middle East for the better, and perhaps even topple the Islamic Republic regime.
In a press conference with Israeli media on June 15, Netanyahu claimed the war was a success and that “Israel was saved from the threat of nuclear annihilation.” However, he avoided addressing the Trump agreement with Iran.
The magazine notes that despite Netanyahu's claims and the extensive damage the war would inflict on Iran, its regime remains in power. On the contrary, the war has strengthened the hardliners in Tehran. The agreement to be signed on Friday, June 19, does not address the Iranian nuclear program, which Israel considers one of its greatest threats. Instead, it will be the subject of negotiations over the next 60 days.
There is no guarantee that these talks will be decisive, and they are likely to be extended multiple times. Iran remains capable of launching ballistic missiles at Israel and other countries in the Middle East. The agreement with the United States is not expected to address Iran's ballistic missile program at all, nor will it address one of Israel's other major concerns: the proxy groups supported by Iran, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, which, under the agreement, will receive renewed protection from Israeli attacks.
The magazine adds that Israel nearly derailed the ceasefire hours before it was announced when it attacked a target in Beirut after Hezbollah launched more drones. Instead of derailing the negotiations, as Netanyahu had hoped, the attack encouraged Trump to finalize the agreement.
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz insists that his forces remain in the “security zones” that Israel has seized in southern Lebanon over the past three months, but Iran demands that an Israeli withdrawal be part of the agreement with America.
The Economist reports that Israel can no longer rely on its ally's support in this matter. The US president also gave a series of interviews expressing his extreme anger at his former partner Netanyahu for his lack of wisdom in launching the strike on Beirut, describing him as "a difficult person" who "should be very grateful to us."
The magazine notes that the two men's goals were increasingly diverging, especially after Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities angered Trump, as the president was more interested in dealing with the regime itself that Israel wanted to overthrow.
The magazine quoted an Israeli official who had previously lived in Washington: “A big part of the problem is that we no longer have the same kind of relationship with America where officials used to speak frankly and transparently at all levels. Now, all of that has been overshadowed by the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump and their personal problems.”
More importantly, Israel's and the United States' objectives in Iran became less aligned. Some voices within the Israeli defense and intelligence establishment warned their generals of this divergence in the early days of the war. They suggested that Israel should be more realistic about its goals, but their leaders were swept away by the success of the initial airstrikes and supported Netanyahu throughout the forty days of the war, until Trump declared it over. Since then, Israel has been left isolated.
Netanyahu and Trump's goals were increasingly diverging, especially after Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities angered the US president.
The magazine states that striking Iran has been a primary objective for Netanyahu for years, and he has led Israel into two wars to achieve this goal. While these campaigns inflicted significant damage on Iran's nuclear and missile programs, this damage may be temporary, as Israel failed to achieve its strategic objectives and harmed its vital relationship with the United States, as well as its relations with Arab states that it considered allies against Iran.
Moreover, Netanyahu's chances of re-election in October are likely to be significantly affected. It will be difficult for him to present himself as a guarantor of Israel's security given his apparent lack of progress on the Iran issue. He also cannot afford to appear to be at odds with or at war with Trump, with whom he has invested so much in a personal relationship.
However, none of his rivals has yet offered an alternative strategy toward Iran. The leaders of all the major opposition parties were equally enthusiastic when the war broke out. Criticism of Netanyahu focuses on his failure to achieve tangible results, not on his initiating the war. “We desperately need a new policy toward Iran,” says one military planner. But for now, Israel has no hope of getting one, according to The Economist.
