Political and media circles in Israel are commemorating the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on the occasion of the 1000th day since it occurred, and are reflecting on its results in light of a bitter conflict between two camps vying for control of the Hebrew state’s identity and spirit, as well as an ongoing debate about who bears responsibility for this dangerous strategic failure.
This widespread interest in this anniversary is evident, in all its forms, dedicating large spaces to covering and recalling what happened and is happening since the “flood,” and in a series of many social rituals and events, especially within what is known as the “Gaza envelope towns.”
The scenes of raids, surprise attacks, fire, and smoke have shaken Israelis' confidence in the state and the future of living there, not just in the government and the army.
This interest is reflected on the front page of Yediot Aharonot today, where there is a large picture of a Hamas bulldozer devouring the border fence in the hours of that fateful day, and above it is written 1000. This very broad Israeli interest stems from many factors, the first of which is the human losses represented by the killing and wounding of hundreds of Israelis in a few hours, which produced a state of shock.
But the shock deepened after its strategic dimension became clear, as the fighting within this envelope lasted for two weeks after Palestinian vehicles reached many settlements, including the city of Sderot, and occupied its police headquarters, causing a wider and deeper shock characterized by a strategic dimension in light of a confrontation between small, besieged Palestinian organizations against a large army.
The scenes of storming, surprise, fire, and smoke shook the confidence of Israelis in the state and the future of living in it, and not just in the government and the army. The “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation hit the historical Zionist narrative that had told Israelis and Jews around the world for decades that the Jewish state was their safest refuge, until it became clear on October 7 that the opposite was true.
There is no doubt that the capture of dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians increased the shock, and prompted Israeli circles to pay attention to its memory, especially since there are convictions that Netanyahu’s government gave them up and rejected exchange deals in the name of “the false absolute victory,” as Reserve General Nitzan Alon, the official in charge of the prisoners and missing persons file in the Israeli army, says in a conversation published by the Hebrew newspaper “Haaretz” today, Thursday.
What if Iran and Hezbollah joined forces with Hamas?
There is no doubt that the widespread concern in Israel, especially among opposition circles and among observers and analysts, stems from the understanding that the serious consequences and losses of the “Al-Aqsa flood” could have been more serious, and from the realization that the seriousness of events is not measured only by their dire consequences but also by their potential consequences that would have been achieved but were prevented by luck or the calculations of the other side.
In this context, former National Security Advisor, Reserve General Giora Eiland, reiterates that Israel might have been finished had Hezbollah and Iran joined the October 7th offensive. In a previous interview with Israeli radio, Eiland stated, "If Hezbollah had decided to deploy its special forces on the first day, they would have occupied the Galilee and reached Haifa before sunset on October 7th."
This is reminiscent of statements by US President Donald Trump, who said several times in recent weeks that without him Israel would have been destroyed, without mentioning what his predecessor Joe Biden did, who rushed to Israel’s aid, warning the region and pushing more weapons to Israel. This was considered by some observers to be vital assistance that enabled Israel to regain its self-confidence at a critical moment.
Had Hezbollah decided to deploy its special forces on the first day, it would have occupied the Galilee and reached Haifa before the sun set on October 7th.
It is not unlikely that some political and media circles in Israel are focusing on the occasion today in the hope of undermining the prestige of Netanyahu’s coalition and increasing the chances of its downfall by reminding people of its resounding and dangerous failure in the context of an ongoing battle for consciousness on the eve of a fateful and decisive general election next October.
Open fronts
When the dust settles from the storm that has been raging since October 7, and historians begin to write, they will notice with astonishment how the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, launched from Gaza, has caused successive regional wars on several fronts, affecting Lebanon and Iran, and extending from Bab al-Mandab to Mount Hermon, without a resolution so far.
A cartoon in a Hebrew newspaper today expresses the state of bleeding and the continuation of the war with open fronts. In it, an Israeli soldier appears on the course of a “marathon” race, and on the starting line, the number 1000 is written opposite his feet. In front of him, the road appears long, and around him, there is destruction, bombing, fire, and a state of war.
At the same time, Netanyahu continues to search for an “absolute victory,” which broad Israeli circles consider to be merely empty slogans to cover up the failure resulting from several factors, including relying solely on force, a mentality of arrogance and conceit, and a lack of political vision, or rather, a lack of a strategic plan.
One of the results and consequences of this earthquake, which is still spewing its lava and causing tremors in the region, is the decline in the normalization process between the occupying state and additional Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, which today seeks to reconsider its strategic security concept and may move closer to Iran instead of Israel.
What catches the attention of the Israelis and concerns them is that Hamas is still present after nearly three years, despite the destruction of the sector stone by stone. Meanwhile, Israeli sources claim that Hamas is rebuilding its strength and preparing for new military operations, amid calls to launch another war on Gaza under the banner that the threat still exists, and other calls to exert more pressure on the Gazans and displace them this time.
