The American magazine Foreign Policy published an article by researcher Azriel Bermant entitled, literally translated as, “Why is Netanyahu shouting that there is a wolf in Turkey that will attack Israel?” The expression “shouting about the danger of a wolf” refers to the exaggerated and false claim of a threat, alluding to the story of a bored shepherd who repeatedly tricked his fellow villagers into believing that a wolf was attacking his flock of sheep, prompting them to rush to his aid, until they grew tired of his constant lies. When a real wolf finally appeared, the villagers ignored his desperate pleas for help, believing it to be just another trick.
The writer began his article by noting that, with the renewed escalation in the confrontation between the United States and Iran, it is surprising that Turkey—not Iran—has topped the list of issues Israel has focused on in its statements and positions in recent days. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is deeply concerned about US President Donald Trump's hints regarding the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, as these highly advanced aircraft could significantly undermine Israel's military superiority in the region. Netanyahu is clearly troubled by Trump's growing admiration for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to the point that Trump stated—just before the NATO summit in Ankara earlier this week—that he only decided to attend because Erdoğan was hosting the summit.
In a recent interview with CNN, Netanyahu described Türkiye as “a regime permeated by the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, which harbors hatred for the United States.”
In a recent interview with CNN, Netanyahu described Turkey as “a regime permeated by the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, which harbors hatred for the United States.”
The writer stressed that Netanyahu believes that Turkey's acquisition of these advanced aircraft could change the regional balance of power, especially in light of the increasing tension between Israel and the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
According to Netanyahu, he informed US President Donald Trump that the potential deal would disrupt the military balance in the region, but Trump downplayed these concerns, asserting that he had managed to convince Erdogan not to join Iran in its confrontation with Israel.
According to the expert, Israeli concerns about Turkey are based on accumulated disagreements between the two sides, after bilateral relations between them witnessed a significant deterioration following the Gaza war, at a time when Turkish rhetoric against Israel was escalating.
Netanyahu accused Ankara of taking a more aggressive stance towards Israeli actions in the region, and argued that Turkish policy had become more hostile, in the context of Western criticism of Turkey over its maritime disputes with Greece, as well as criticism related to freedoms, particularly regarding the arrest of political opponents and journalists.
Critics also point to past disagreements between Turkey and NATO, most notably Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system and its long-standing objection to Sweden joining the alliance.
But the writer believes that Netanyahu’s warnings about Turkey cannot be separated from his internal political calculations, especially with the approach of the Israeli elections, as he believes that Netanyahu has an interest in exaggerating external threats to enhance his image as a leader capable of protecting Israel in the face of regional dangers, and to maintain the support of his right-wing political base.
The writer points out that the timing of the Israeli escalation towards Turkey raises questions, especially since the Israeli government took an official decision during the same period to recognize the Armenian genocide, a step that Israel had refrained from taking for decades because of its desire to maintain strategic relations with Ankara.
Netanyahu's election calculations
The writer believes that this shift reflects a change in Israeli political calculations towards Turkey. He also criticizes what he describes as the double standards in Netanyahu’s regional policy, noting that Netanyahu’s criticism of Erdogan for suppressing opponents and journalists contradicts his previous relations with leaders accused of similar violations, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Netanyahu maintained a close relationship for years.
Netanyahu criticizes Erdogan's ambitions to restore Ottoman influence in the region, even though he himself adopts rhetoric calling for the reshaping of the Middle East, with Israel continuing to control parts of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
The writer believes that Netanyahu criticizes Erdogan’s ambitions to restore Ottoman influence in the region, even though he himself adopts a discourse calling for the reshaping of the Middle East, with Israel continuing to control parts of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, in addition to the positions of his far-right partners who demand the expansion of Israeli influence and the annexation of parts of the Palestinian territories.
The analysis concludes that the escalation with Türkiye serves Netanyahu’s political goals before the elections, as it allows him to present himself as the sole defender of Israel’s security in the face of increasing external threats.
According to the researcher, the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey may indeed represent a significant shift in the regional balance of power, but the problem for Netanyahu is that repeatedly issuing warnings for domestic political purposes may make allies less willing to listen to his concerns.
The author concludes his article by saying that the biggest challenge facing the Israeli Prime Minister is that the Trump administration itself may have begun to take his warnings more seriously.
