Discontent with the administration of US President Donald Trump is growing in the Gulf region, according to Arab and Western officials who spoke to The Washington Post.
This comes amid concerns among Washington's allies that the US administration is unable to manage the diplomatic path necessary to end the war with Iran and reach a settlement that guarantees security and stability in the region.The newspaper said that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, according to three officials and a former US diplomat, share a state of resentment towards the Trump administration, after months of war and continued Iranian attacks and attacks by groups allied with Tehran using missiles and drones.
This comes at a time when Trump has been repeatedly threatening new attacks on Iran in recent weeks, before backing down later under the pretext of progress in negotiations, which has raised Gulf concerns about the lack of a clear American strategy and consistency in positions. The Washington Post quoted a Gulf official as saying, "Trump started this war, and we are the ones paying the price," adding that anger toward the United States has reached its highest level since the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February. Despite the Gulf states’ continued reliance on the United States as a key security partner and primary arms supplier, some countries, according to the report, have begun to discuss the feasibility of continuing to host large US military bases on their territories, given the region’s direct exposure to the repercussions of the war.
In a sign of the region's efforts to diversify its security partnerships, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement last week, which a senior European official described as "a signal to the United States," reflecting the three countries' desire not to rely solely on Washington for their security arrangements. A White House official confirmed that Trump enjoys "exceptional relations" with all Gulf partners, noting that the United States is in regular contact with its regional allies, and that Iran has become, according to him, "more isolated than ever before." Analysts said that US allies in the Gulf feel they have been drawn into a war that is not in their interest, while the Trump administration is finding it difficult to end it.
The newspaper quoted Firas Maksad, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Eurasia Group, as saying that Trump's policy towards Iran is described in the region as "volatile" and "unpredictable." Anna Jacobs of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington said that trust in the United States has declined since the outbreak of the war, and that Washington's allies now see American behavior in the region as "making them less safe, not more safe." A Western diplomat in the region pointed out that the American military presence was not initially met with great enthusiasm, but was seen as an "inevitable necessity," but the continuation of the war led some countries to question the extent to which this necessity would continue.
Saudi Arabia faces particular pressure, given the attacks it has suffered from Iran and attacks from groups loyal to Tehran in Iraq, in addition to attacks by the Yemeni Ansar Allah group on Saudi energy facilities. According to the report, the group is trying to disrupt shipping through Bab al-Mandab, while Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on its Red Sea ports to export oil, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in the early days of the war. The Washington Post points out that the Gulf states' positions on the war have not been unified since its beginning; Oman opposed the conflict from the start, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain expressed more supportive positions at different stages.
According to a Western diplomat, Emirati forces have carried out a "large number" of strikes inside Iranian territory in recent months, while Saudi forces have carried out strikes against Iranian-backed groups that have been attacking their territory from Iraq. But Gulf positions began to change as it became clear that the war would not quickly lead to the downfall of the Iranian regime or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior European official who spoke to the newspaper. Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University and a researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said that the lack of a clear strategy on the part of the Trump administration existed even before the war, pointing to the memorandum of understanding that the United States and Iran concluded in June.
Al-Saif argued that the agreement did not address the most prominent concerns of the Gulf states, especially regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for allied armed groups, and therefore it did not last long. In contrast, the White House said that Trump had been clear from the beginning in his preference for a diplomatic solution, but held Iran responsible for the continued violence, accusing it of killing American soldiers and launching attacks on countries in the region. Despite growing discontent, the Gulf states currently have no ready alternative to their decades-long security partnership with the United States.
A Gulf official told the newspaper that the countries of the region, no matter how dissatisfied they may be, cannot abandon Washington. Former US Ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq Douglas Silliman described the situation as a "strange paradox," as the Gulf states are angry with the United States for starting the war, but at the same time depend on it for weapons, ammunition, and intelligence. Officials warn that the continuation of the war will increase economic pressures on the Gulf states, especially with the approach of the autumn season, which usually sees the return of tourism and economic activity and the hosting of conferences, summits, festivals and Formula One races.
The Saudi Future Investment Initiative conference, scheduled for late October, may be an early test of how willing senior executives and international business leaders are to travel to the region given the ongoing security risks. In Kuwait, despite Iran continuing to launch missiles and drones towards the country, life has largely returned to normal, with businesses reopening, traffic returning, and daily activities resuming. But Badr Al-Saif stressed that the Gulf states want a quick end to the conflict, warning that a longer war would make its security and economic repercussions more difficult for the region.
