Egypt is looking to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems from Türkiye in a strategic move to diversify its arms sources, raising concerns in Israel.
The Israeli news platform Natsiv Net said that reports that Turkey is offering or considering selling Russian S-400 air defense systems to Egypt, along with Qatar and the UAE, which have also been identified as potential buyers, represent a complex strategic move with broad implications for the Middle East and Israel.
The Hebrew newspaper added that Turkey’s main reason for selling the “S-400” system is its strong desire to return to the American F-35 stealth fighter jet program.
She pointed out that Washington expelled Ankara from the project and imposed security sanctions on it in 2019 after it purchased the Russian system for fear that Moscow would collect sensitive information, and that recent American signals following meetings between Erdogan and Trump indicated that removing the system from Turkish territory paves the way for lifting the sanctions, making selling it to a third country a way for Turkey to get down from the tree without destroying the expensive system or angering Moscow, which must approve the identity of the buyer.
She pointed out that Egypt has been pursuing a policy of diversifying its arms purchase sources for years to avoid dependence on a single superpower, and already possesses older-generation Russian defense systems such as the S-300VM, making the acquisition of the S-400 technically and logistically logical.
The platform questioned the source of funding in light of the ongoing economic crisis, suggesting three main sources: aid and funding from the Gulf states, which may finance the deal to strengthen the Sunni Arab axis; barter deals and industrial cooperation with Turkey, which recently signed defense agreements; or the allocated Egyptian defense budget, which is protected by the army despite civilian difficulties, given the priority of protecting the skies from regional threats.
The Israeli news platform Natsiv Net stated that this move has direct and indirect repercussions for Israel's security, most notably the erosion of its qualitative air superiority. The introduction of an advanced air defense system like the S-400, capable of detecting stealth targets, to a neighboring country like Egypt reduces the theoretical freedom of action of the Israeli Air Force in the region, even under a peace treaty. The Hebrew newspaper added that the more indirect and worrying implication for Israel is Turkey's return to the F-35 project. Israel had previously tried to work behind the scenes to prevent Erdogan from acquiring the American fighter jet due to his hostile stances. If this roundabout deal succeeds, Turkey will acquire advanced stealth aircraft, which will alter the balance of air power in the Mediterranean.
She pointed out that the positive aspect is that the Egyptian or Gulf system will not be connected to NATO or US radar and control systems, which weakens its network effectiveness. Moreover, strengthening air defense systems in Egypt and the Gulf states can help repel ballistic missile and drone threats from Iran and its proxies such as the Houthis, which indirectly serves regional stability in which Israel is involved.
The report concluded by noting that Turkey’s negotiations to sell the systems are currently facing difficulties and a deadlock due to contractual objections from Russia and American concerns, and the systems have not yet been finalized, pointing out that the West currently has good answers to neutralize this weapon.
It is worth noting that since 2013, Egyptian defense policy has witnessed a clear strategic shift towards diversifying arms sources, as it no longer relies exclusively on the United States, but has turned to purchasing advanced systems from Russia such as MiG-29 fighters, Ka-52 helicopters and S-300VM systems, and from France such as Rafale fighters, in order to ensure strategic independence and avoid any political pressures that may affect arms deals.
In contrast, Turkey has faced US sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) since 2019 for its purchase of the Russian S-400 system, which led to its expulsion from the F-35 program. Turkey's current attempts to sell this system to Egypt or Gulf states come as a compromise that allows Ankara to restore its defense relations with Washington without offending Moscow, while Israel sees any transfer of advanced air defense systems to its immediate vicinity, even if it is to a country with which it has a peace treaty, as a potential challenge to the freedom of action of its air force and its qualitative air superiority in the region.
