Politico warned that the French presidential elections scheduled for 2027 could lead to the rise of political forces opposed to NATO, threatening the cohesion of the alliance.
The newspaper explained that the latest opinion polls show that about half of French voters support candidates who take negative positions on the alliance, including the leader of the parliamentary bloc of the National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, and the founder of the France Unbowed party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
According to the newspaper, NATO is preparing for the possibility that the next French president could create a "significant rift" within the alliance.
This comes at a time when the alliance is facing doubts about Washington's defense commitment to Europe, while its member states are strengthening their military capabilities in preparation for a possible confrontation with Russia.
Le Pen, from the right-wing National Rally party, seeks to remove Paris from the alliance's integrated military command, while Mélenchon, from the left, has declared his desire for France to withdraw from NATO.
France's departure from NATO, as the only nuclear power in the European Union, would have wide-ranging repercussions within the alliance, potentially raising doubts about the deployment of French troops in Romania and Estonia, limiting access to key military capabilities, and weakening military coordination among the 32 member states.
The timing is particularly sensitive as the United States, under President Donald Trump, begins to reduce its forces in Europe, while other countries rush to strengthen their defenses in response to warnings that Russia could attack the alliance during the current decade.
Jamie Shea, a defense researcher at the Friends of Europe think tank and a former NATO spokesman, said that a smaller American presence in Europe makes it undesirable for a major European country to distance itself from the alliance, especially at a time when European countries, including France, are supposed to take on more defense responsibilities.
According to an internal NATO poll conducted in the spring and seen by Politico, about 54% of French voters said they would vote for France to remain in NATO, the second lowest percentage among the 32 member states after Montenegro.
Widespread military repercussions
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament's defense committee, said that France is not just a founding member of NATO but a key player in it, particularly because of its nuclear arsenal, and that the only beneficiaries of its withdrawal would be the West's adversaries.
French General Michel Yakovlev, a former deputy chief of staff at NATO military headquarters, explained that the withdrawal from military command structures could theoretically take effect immediately, as the French president does not need to consult parliament.
He added that the one-year withdrawal clause in the NATO treaty only applies to countries that leave the alliance's political structures, which does not necessarily apply to Le Pen's policy.
But the transition will practically take about a year, according to Yakovlev’s estimate, given the need to withdraw about a thousand French officers permanently stationed in NATO institutions, and to establish a liaison body to coordinate relations with the alliance in the future.
France had previously withdrawn from NATO's integrated military command in 1966 under President Charles de Gaulle, before rejoining in 2009 during Nicolas Sarkozy's presidency. However, following de Gaulle's decision, Paris continued to maintain close ties with the alliance and frequently participated in its operations.
The main concerns are focused on the future of the French battle group in Romania, which includes about 1,200 troops and is led by France, as well as informal cooperation between France and NATO in the nuclear field, and its specialized capabilities in satellites and intelligence, according to three diplomats in the alliance.
If France were to withdraw, NATO military planners would lose access to Europe’s only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, an amphibious fleet including Mistral-class ships, Ceres intelligence satellites, and a navy capable of deploying about 65% of its fleet, according to Yakovlev.
Yakovlev said that France has "a little bit of everything," adding that its exit from the command structure would also have financial repercussions for the alliance, as France currently contributes about 10% of NATO's annual operating budget of 5.3 billion euros.
He added that France's withdrawal would weaken the alliance because it remains "the most influential power after America."
The French presidential election is scheduled to take place on April 18, 2027, with a second round to be held on May 2 if necessary.
The current French President, Emmanuel Macron, will not be able to participate in the elections, given that he is serving a second consecutive term.
Marine Le Pen intends to participate in the elections, after she was granted the possibility of running at the beginning of July following a reduction of the sentence issued against her in a case of embezzling funds from the European Parliament.
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