Global warming is turning forests and wetlands into sources of emissions that could increase the Earth's temperature by 30%, according to a new study that warns current climate projections are ignoring this "hidden factor".
As the planet warms due to the burning of fossil fuels, permafrost thaws in high latitudes, wildfires become more intense in dry forests, and wetlands and lakes heat up.
All these changes lead to the release of methane and carbon dioxide trapped in trees and soil, exacerbating the climate crisis.
Although scientists have long been aware of these "vicious cycles" that amplify the direct impact of pollution, emissions from natural sources are largely not accounted for in climate projections.
The researchers found that this additional warming is substantial, with emissions from natural sources expected to amplify global warming by 20% to 30% by the end of this century, adding between 0.2 and 0.4 degrees Celsius to the average global temperature, depending on the actions taken by countries to address the climate crisis.
The study warned that global warming will be greater than most current projections take into account, because they do not account for methane and carbon dioxide emitted from permafrost, wetlands, freshwater, and forest fires – the four areas analyzed by the study.
Sam Abernethy of Spark Climate Solutions, who led the study published in Environmental Research Letters, said: "This hidden multiplier is missing from the models that guide climate policy, so those models are likely to overestimate how much warming is coming and underestimate how much carbon we can still release."
Rob Jackson, a Stanford University scientist and co-author of the study, said: "The disruption of the world's carbon cycles is now being seen in real time. The findings are a wake-up call and must be incorporated into the next generation of climate policies. Failure to do so will make achieving global climate goals even less likely."
The research paper explains that countries' actions to reduce fossil fuel pollution will decrease the amount of additional emissions coming from natural landscapes. In the best-case climate scenario, where emissions are reduced rapidly, natural sources will add 0.2 degrees Celsius to warming. In a worst-case scenario, where emissions are higher, they will add 0.4 degrees Celsius.
According to the Climate Action Tracker project, current policies are likely to cause global temperatures to rise 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Bill Ripple, an ecologist at Oregon State University, said: "One of the most worrying aspects of climate change is that warming can trigger natural processes that cause even more warming. This doesn't mean that a 'greenhouse Earth' path is inevitable, but it does offer another warning about the potential for reinforcing feedback loops that can amplify human-initiated warming. It also reminds us why every degree Celsius matters. The more the planet warms, the greater the risk of triggering natural processes that add even more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, making a rapid reduction in fossil fuel emissions all the more urgent."
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