Ahead of COP31 in Türkiye, the "climate truth clock" strikes in Baku

Two months before the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31), scheduled to be held in Antalya, Turkey, the Baku Climate Action Week kicked off in Azerbaijan, which will run until September 11.

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While the body responsible for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change describes this week as a space aimed at generating interest in the Conference of the Parties and linking the intergovernmental negotiations that will take place during the conference to the actual implementation needs on the ground, past experiences reveal a gap between what is announced or pushed during climate weeks and what the negotiations at the Conference of the Parties ultimately result in.

Dr. Magdi Allam, Secretary General of the Arab Union of Environmental Experts and advisor to the Global Climate Facility, told “These events reveal the bare climate facts and the real direction that countries should push negotiations towards, but the picture may change at the negotiating table in the Conference of the Parties.”

He explains that "these meetings usually adopt ambitious goals, representing the 'climate reality' that must be acknowledged, but at the negotiating table of the Conference of the Parties, countries may demand more flexible texts to protect their economic interests, or alliances may form during the negotiation, or trade-offs may emerge between different files that lead to a change in positions, or countries may be forced to avoid committing to specific numbers or deadlines during the negotiation."

He adds: “Therefore, what is issued during these weeks can be said to be the abstract scientific and technical vision that describes the path we must quickly take, but at the Conference of the Parties politics intervenes with its calculations, slowing down the pace, postponing the journey, or even sometimes canceling the trip altogether.”

The transition from ideas to negotiation texts

There are many examples of the gap between what is announced during climate weeks and what the Conference of the Parties negotiations ultimately result in, and Magdi recalls the most prominent of them, which is related to the outcomes of the African Climate Week in Nairobi in September 2023.

He says: “Climate Week came out with a strong message about increasing climate finance, adaptation and climate justice, with confirmation that these demands will be conveyed to COP28, but not all of these demands at the conference turned into specific financial commitments of the scale demanded by African countries. One of the most prominent outcomes of the conference was a call for developed countries to provide more funding for adaptation, while the funding gap continues.”

Magdi does not expect a different outcome at the Baku Climate Week, as strong language about the transition to clean energy and accelerating emissions reductions may emerge, in line with the declared priorities of the COP31 negotiations presidency led by Australia, which includes accelerating the global transition to clean energy and increasing investment in the green economy. However, at the negotiating table, this language will clash with the interests of oil and gas producing countries and countries that believe that energy security and economic development should be part of the equation.

Despite this view, Magdi does not see that this diminishes the importance of Baku Climate Week. In his estimation, it represents an early laboratory for what the Conference of the Parties can achieve, as it raises the ceiling of ambition and helps to formulate positions. However, the final test will come when these ideas are transformed into negotiating texts, official commitments, and implementation mechanisms.