America is losing the war against Iran by all measures.
President Donald Trump's statement at the beginning of March, in which he asserted that America had "won the war" but must "finish the job." Months later, with fighting escalating across the region and diplomatic efforts stalled, the "job" remains unfinished, with no end in sight.
“We hope we are nearing the end of the war,” Trump said on Wednesday, suggesting that Iran wants to make a deal. However, this optimism does not match the reality on the ground, and there is little evidence that Tehran is keen to reach an agreement.
The United States achieved successes in the war, although the military adventure was overall a strategic disaster and revealed serious weaknesses in the US military.
Haltwagner asserted that the United States had achieved some successes in the war, even though the military adventure was, on the whole, a strategic disaster. It exposed serious weaknesses in the U.S. military, led to the dispersal of its forces, cost the United States an estimated $38.1 billion to date, and triggered a global energy crisis. The war is deeply unpopular with American voters, and a growing number of Republicans in Congress are voting to end the conflict. One Republican congressman has even moved to impeach Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth over the war.
However, the United States has achieved little in Iran, and in some cases, matters have worsened. By almost every measure—from Iran’s ability to project power in the region through its proxies, to its military capabilities and the strength of its regime, to the status of its nuclear program—the United States is losing the war.
Worse still, Tehran has now demonstrated its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz in the long term—a capability it has long boasted about but never actually demonstrated. “If you go back to February and look at what the United States said and what it was trying to achieve, it certainly failed to achieve its main strategic objectives,” Gregory Brau, an Iran expert and senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
The war did not halt the activities of Iran's proxies. At the outset, Trump declared that the war would ensure that these groups could not destabilize the region or the world or attack American forces. Similarly, in early March, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Keane, stated that the United States aimed to undermine Iran's ability to project power beyond its borders, both now and in the future. However, there is no evidence to suggest that the United States achieved this. For months, the war centered on the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring Tehran's continued ability to influence events in the Middle East and the world.
Months into the war, groups loyal to Tehran remain a significant threat, increasingly contributing to regional chaos and rising oil prices. The Houthis, Iran’s allies in Yemen, made significant territorial gains along the Red Sea coast this month, including capturing the port city of Mocha and strategic islands like Perim, in a lightning offensive against Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces . As a result, the group effectively controls another vital waterway, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and separates the Arabian Peninsula from Africa.
The Trump administration also failed to achieve another objective: destroying Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities. In April, Higseth claimed that Iran’s missile program had been effectively destroyed and that the country was “no longer able to build missiles.” Trump also claimed that the Iranian military was “totally destroyed.” Undoubtedly, the war has significantly impacted the Iranian military. Several senior Iranian military and intelligence commanders have been killed since the bombing began, its industrial capabilities have been diminished, and its conventional navy has been largely destroyed. However, Tehran’s continued missile and drone attacks on targets throughout the region demonstrate that this objective remains elusive and that the Trump administration greatly overestimated its military successes.
The Trump administration failed to achieve another goal, which was to destroy Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities.
Intelligence assessments contradict the Trump administration's public claims about the extent to which Iran's military capabilities have declined, and reports indicate that Iran has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities, even after thousands of U.S. strikes targeted its missile facilities and launch sites in the early days of the war.
Trump failed to topple the regime, as his administration's stance on the issue wavered. It was clear from the outset of the war that regime change was among the White House's primary objectives. As Prow stated, "To the extent that regime change was the goal, American action has been entirely counterproductive. The regime is now more entrenched, more confident in its position within Iran, and more emboldened. It is now under the control of a security and military leadership that, while pragmatic, is almost entirely anti-Western and uninterested in any kind of broader rapprochement with the United States or the West in general."
Trump’s war has diminished the perceived importance of Iran’s nuclear program, even though Washington insisted it was the primary objective of the war. The president also falsely claimed that the United States had “destroyed” the Iranian program, even as he justified continuing the war to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Undoubtedly, the US strikes have damaged Iran’s nuclear program by destroying infrastructure.
However, Iran still possesses a stockpile of highly enriched uranium estimated at around 440 kilograms (970 pounds). Experts have repeatedly emphasized that as long as Iran retains access to this stockpile, the precise location of which remains unknown, its nuclear program continues to pose a threat and cannot be considered neutral.
Satellite images, according to a recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, showed a “significant increase” in construction work at Axe Mountain, a suspected nuclear site, in 2026. Last week, Trump hinted at the possibility of the United States taking action based on reports of construction work at this mountain.With no progress on the nuclear issue and failing to achieve its initial war aims in general, the Trump administration turned its attention to other objectives. The administration sought to economically strangle Iran through a naval blockade and a financial campaign, dubbed “Operation Paragon Economic”, to further isolate Tehran through sanctions and other measures.
But the Iranian leadership has withstood US economic pressure for decades, raising doubts about whether this approach will bring about tangible change and force Tehran to make concessions in any future negotiations.
Currently, the conflict has transformed into a battle over who controls the Strait of Hormuz and the flow of oil through its shipping lanes. When asked for comment on whether Trump believes the war would end well for the United States, a White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Foreign Policy that “Iran is constantly reaching out and trying hard to reach an agreement,” but that the president “is open to a good deal with Iran, provided it definitively abandons its desire to acquire a nuclear weapon.”
The “Unlike previous presidents, President Trump will not be fooled by the Iranian regime, and the president is content to let the inevitable Iranian collapse unfold before our eyes.”
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