The US and Middle Eastern officials as saying that Iran has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities using stockpiled components, undermining claims by the US and Israel that they had destroyed Iran's missile capabilities. Despite heavy attacks on its missile sites and industrial facilities during the initial phase of the war, Iran has been busy assembling liquid-fueled missiles, which must be fueled just before launch, as well as solid-fueled missiles, which can be stored for later use, according to some officials. These officials indicated that intelligence points to activity at several underground sites, including the Khojir missile facility in southeastern Iran. They added that Iran is also seeking to construct new underground assembly points to mitigate the risk of future attacks.
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US and regional officials have reported that Iran is assembling new missiles primarily from components that were available in smaller quantities than before the war. This is largely due to the damage inflicted by the US and Israel on several industrial facilities needed to produce missile components and the missiles themselves, as well as the naval blockade, which has made it more difficult to import spare parts and components for solid fuel.
The difficulty of completely dismantling Iran's missile program, given the resumption of production. One of the objectives of the war launched by the United States and Israel on February 28th was to destroy Iran's missile arsenal. Furthermore, the resumption of production strengthens Iran's ability to withstand a war of attrition, a war that balances its weapons stockpile with the dwindling arsenals of the United States and the Gulf states in interceptor missiles.
Tal Inbar, senior analyst at the U.S. Missile Defense Alliance, “When facilities are not bombed, damaged infrastructure can be replaced, new components can be purchased from other countries and stored in those facilities, and it is naive to think that Iran is not rebuilding its missile production capabilities.”
A White House official commented that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been destroyed and its military forces severely weakened, saying, “Iran is weaker than ever, and President Trump will not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.”
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the United States had “destroyed up to 90% of Iran’s drones, ballistic missiles and naval industrial base,” and had “significantly degraded” Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones.
The United States and Israel succeeded in severely weakening Iran’s missile program at the start of the war through thousands of strikes targeting production sites, storage facilities, missiles, and launch pads. However, Iran used the lull this summer to rebuild its military capabilities, believing that the ceasefire would not hold.
A U.S. official said Iran may have resumed missile production at a low rate after signing a preliminary agreement with Trump in mid-June to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin talks to end the war. The official added that Tehran believes it is capable of assembling at least 200 missiles from the components it already possesses.
Before the war, Iran was assembling components including ready-made warheads, missile structures, and guidance and control systems, according to Jim Lamson, a visiting scholar at King’s College London and a former CIA analyst specializing in Iranian military affairs. He pointed to old photos and videos released by Iran showing many of these components lined up against the walls of underground facilities. The number of new missiles Iran could produce depends on the depth of these stockpiles and the number of operational underground facilities. “We could be talking about hundreds of missiles or perhaps thousands,” Lamson said.
Iran depleted its stockpile of ready-made missiles during the war, forcing it to scale back its attacks, but it still possesses significant capabilities. Inbar reported that Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal.
Iran continues to launch missiles at US bases across the Middle East, demonstrating the diversity of its arsenal. Some of the missiles used, such as the Kheirbashkan, are mobile, accurate, and relatively inexpensive.
Iran launched a barrage of missiles at an airbase in Jordan housing US forces. Videos showed the missiles were equipped with cluster warheads, a type of missile frequently used against Israel earlier in the war to challenge airdefense systems.
In April, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Iran's missile program had been "virtually destroyed" and that Iran lacked the means to produce new missiles. He added, "You are looking for launch pads and missiles that you have left without the ability to replace them, and you have neither a defense industry nor the capacity to replenish your offensive or defensive capabilities."
Arab and Israeli officials are preparing for continued fighting and the possibility of Iranian escalation of the crisis as the US tightens its economic noose. In recent days, Iran has launched a series of attacks on US warships, nearly causing direct hits, but none were successful.
that satellite images show Iran is rebuilding everything, from bridges and roads to production sites, at a pace that worries Israeli officials.
Iran has reopened tunnel entrances leading to missile bases that were destroyed by US and Israeli airstrikes. Israeli military assessments indicate that the weapons stored inside these underground sites are likely well-preserved.
Arab officials said the challenges to returning to full missile production include damage to the chemical facilities needed to make liquid fuel and the industrial mixers for producing solid fuel.
Lacking a modern air force, Iran established its missile program in the 1980s during the war with Iraq, and has increasingly relied on these weapons to deter its adversaries.Tehran demonstrated its ability to rebuild its missile program after the twelve-day war with Israel in June 2015. Although Israel targeted the missile program with its attacks, Iran was able to rebuild its stockpile at a faster pace than expected, prompting Israel to warn before the end of the year of the possible need for further strikes on Iran.
“You can destroy the facilities and destroy the missiles themselves, but in reality, the regime has a faster regeneration capacity than the nuclear program and it is widespread,” commented Nicole Grajevski, an expert on Iranian strategy at Sciences Po in Paris. “The reason Iran is building such a sophisticated missile infrastructure is because of this concern.”
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