In the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, where cold ocean currents meet warm waters, lies one of the richest fishing areas in the world off the coast of Mauritania.
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This richness is due to the phenomenon of deep-water upwelling associated with the Canary Current, which transports nutrients to the surface, feeding the phytoplankton that form the basis of the marine food chain.
For decades, this ecosystem has been a pillar of the Mauritanian economy, as the fisheries sector provides thousands of jobs, is one of the main sources of hard currency, and contributes to strengthening food security locally and regionally. However, this “blue treasure” is now facing complex challenges that are no longer limited to fishing pressures, but also include the effects of climate change that have begun to reshape the marine environment.
What do scientific studies say?
A study published in 2024 in the journal Scientific Reports indicates that climate change is increasingly affecting the distribution of small pelagic fish along the coastline from Senegal to Morocco, including Mauritanian waters.
The study was based on 2,363 scientific towing operations and about 170,000 kilometers of acoustic surveys, in addition to environmental data spanning two decades.
The results showed that the "round sardine" was the most affected by these changes, as its northern range moved by about 181 kilometers per decade since 1995, while its biomass north of Cape Blanc increased from 38% to 65% between 1995 and 2015.
The researchers also recorded a local increase in sea surface temperature of about 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade, coinciding with changes in the dynamics of deep-water upwelling, which is the basis of fish productivity in the region.
Scientific indicators do not stop there; a study published in the journal "Marine Environmental Research" in 2026 concluded that changes in sea surface temperature and marine productivity, along with fishing pressures, are affecting the growth and condition of sardine stocks between Morocco and Mauritania, making the integration of environmental indicators into fisheries management a necessity to ensure the sustainability of these resources.
He says that the movement of sardines and other pelagic fish towards colder waters does not necessarily mean a decline in their numbers, but rather reflects a change in their distribution and migration timing, which necessitates a review of fish stock assessment methods. He adds that catch quantities alone no longer reflect the reality of the stock, because fishing effort, fleet capacity, and industrial demand have also become influential factors.
He explains that the phenomenon of the upwelling of deep, nutrient-rich waters, which gives the Mauritanian coasts their high productivity, is also being affected by climate change. The strength of the water lift does not always mean an abundance of fish. If this phenomenon weakens, nutrients decrease, and if it intensifies too much, it may push the rich water away before the food chain can benefit from it, as he puts it.
Ould Sidi warns that the continuation of these changes could raise fishing costs, as fleets, especially traditional ones, are forced to sail longer distances to reach fish stocks, which will affect production, supply chains and food security in the region.
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