The United Nations has declared that keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is now impossible, with expectations that this limit will be exceeded in the coming years.
This threshold will be exceeded by 2030.
The Earth's temperature is currently about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The consequences are evident in many regions: drought threatens crops, wildfires are increasing in southern Europe, glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate, and the ocean is setting new temperature records. Adding to these risks is El Niño, a natural phenomenon that temporarily raises temperatures.
The greatest danger lies in the emergence of tipping points, including the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the disruption of Atlantic Ocean currents, and the transformation of the Amazon rainforest from the "lungs of the planet" into a carbon sink. These processes may be irreversible. Pacific island nations are particularly vulnerable.
But opportunities still exist. If fossil fuels are phased out rapidly, experts estimate that temperatures could peak at around 1.8 degrees Celsius before beginning to decline. To achieve this, we need to reduce emissions, restore ecosystems, and develop technologies to capture carbon dioxide from the air.
This will require not only reducing emissions to net zero by 2050, but also removing one gigaton of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Proposed methods include natural approaches, such as reforestation and nature restoration, and technological ones, such as rock weathering and ocean alkalinization.
The Paris Agreement has achieved some results. Whereas the world was previously projected to experience a 3.6°C temperature increase by 2100, the current trajectory indicates an increase of around 2.6°C. Recent years have also seen a tremendous boom in solar energy and electric transportation; while it took 70 years to install the first terawatt of solar power capacity, the third terawatt was installed in just two years.
However, global emissions have now reached a plateau, but have not yet begun to decline. The climate crisis requires immediate and collective action.
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