A new study estimated that the heat of summer 2026 contributed to the deaths of 50,391 people in 854 European cities, and attributed about two-thirds of these deaths, or 32,619 deaths, to warming caused by human activities, especially the burning of coal, oil and gas.
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The findings, which are scheduled to be published in the journal Nature Health, indicate that the death toll for the months of June, July and August exceeded the summer 2022 estimates by 71% in the cities included in the same analysis. Italy, France, Spain and Germany recorded the highest number of deaths, while more than half of the victims were 85 years of age or older.
The explanation for this large increase begins with the body's attempt to defend its internal temperature, as blood flow to the skin increases and sweating is stimulated to dissipate heat. However, this response places an additional burden on the heart, while the loss of water and salts leads to dehydration and an imbalance in the body, potentially damaging the kidneys and increasing the risk of cardiac complications.
When cooling mechanisms are unable to cope with the heat, heatstroke can occur, threatening the brain and vital organs. However, death does not always require reaching this stage; heat can exacerbate a pre-existing heart or respiratory condition, in which case the death is recorded under the name of the underlying disease, without heat being listed as a contributing factor.
The elderly and those with chronic diseases are more vulnerable, while the lack of proper cooling and the continuation of hot nights increase stress, as they deprive the body of the opportunity to recover.
Researcher Claire Barnes of Imperial College London explained in a press statement that much of the infrastructure in Western and Northern Europe was not designed to withstand current temperatures. Therefore, even a seemingly small increase in heat could be enough to push vulnerable people into a deadly health crisis.
The scientists then compared the estimated deaths in the current climate with estimates for a hypothetical world without human-induced warming, attributing the difference to climate change. Thus, the figures represent statistical estimates, not a direct count of death certificates listing heat as a cause of death.
The study does not include the entire population of Europe or the heatwave that occurred in May, meaning that its scope does not cover the full burden, and that there are still more deaths hidden within "normal pathological conditions".
The findings underscore the need to combine early warning systems, provide air-conditioned spaces, monitor the elderly and vulnerable, and reduce fossil fuel emissions that exacerbate heat waves.
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