The super El Niño phenomenon is still months away from its expected peak, but tropical Pacific waters have been recording record temperatures for weeks.
The latest climate model forecasts indicate that this phenomenon will continue for months longer than usual, making its effects on the weather and the global economy extend until 2027.
In mid-September, daily sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region—a key area in the tropical Pacific that serves as the benchmark for monitoring El Niño and La Niña events—were 5.49 degrees Fahrenheit (3.05 degrees Celsius) above average. This temperature anomaly surpassed the previous record set during the very strong El Niño event of 2015–2016. Since that event did not peak until November 2015, the current El Niño reaching its record high months earlier is exceptional.
What's even more striking is that this El Niño is still intensifying rapidly. The latest seasonal El Niño forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates that the phenomenon will peak at around 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) in December. Model predictions suggest that sea surface temperatures could remain at record highs for six consecutive months, which meteorologist Ben Noll sees as an indication that the climatic impact of this El Niño will likely persist for longer than usual into 2027.
"I think the pace of the decline will accelerate by May, but given the magnitude of the thermal anomaly, this phenomenon may not be completely over until the summer," Noll wrote in a series of tweets on the X platform on Tuesday.
El Niño events typically last between 9 and 12 months, but the longest recorded event in recent history lasted 18 months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). El Niño alters weather patterns worldwide and raises the Earth's average temperature, so the longer it lasts, the longer its effects will persist.
Climate scientists expect this phenomenon to have a significant impact. Although each El Niño develops differently, stronger ones are more likely to produce the anticipated effects. These effects vary regionally across the planet. For example, some parts of the world—such as Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia—tend to experience severe droughts, while others, like the southern United States and parts of western South America, are drenched with record rainfall.
In short, El Niño increases the likelihood of extreme and abnormal weather patterns that can have devastating consequences for human life, ecosystems, and the global economy. The financial losses from El Niño can persist for years after it subsides, accumulating into trillions of dollars in lost global income. With this particular phenomenon expected to be strong and exceptionally long-lasting, experts warn it could cost the global economy at least $7.2 trillion over the next five years.
Given the delayed impact of El Niño on global temperatures, scientists are increasingly convinced that 2027 will be the hottest year on record. The deeper this phenomenon extends into next year, the more pronounced its effect on temperatures will become. This means that 2027 may not only surpass the record set in 2024, but could completely shatter it. Despite this, the true outcome of this El Niño event remains uncertain, as we are still months away from its expected peak. However, the data increasingly points to a powerful, exceptional, long-lasting, and highly impactful phenomenon, potentially unlike anything seen before.
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