Retired Turkish Admiral Cihat Yaycı, one of the theorists of the "Blue Homeland" doctrine, caused a great stir in Israel after his statements about a possible direct clash.
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An imagined depiction of the Turkish-Israeli conflict
Yaycı said in an interview with GZT that the Turkish army would "crush" the Israeli army "like you crush an insect" in a ground confrontation, and that "30 million men" would pour south.
He said that Israel might carry out an air operation but is incapable of a ground war, and that Syria and Lebanon will not stop the Turkish army.
Who is Yaiji and what is the weight of his words?
Yaycı does not hold an official position; he is a professor at Topkapi University and a retired admiral. He was removed from his post as Chief of Naval Staff in 2020 and submitted his resignation the following day. In the same interviews, he had previously spoken of "32.5 million fighters" who would make Israel "disappear."
However, according to Global Firepower, Türkiye has approximately 481,000 active military personnel, 380,000 reservists, and 150,000 paramilitary forces, totaling more than one million.
Numbers in brief
Turkey has a numerical advantage, possessing 1,101 aircraft compared to Israel's 597, 2,284 tanks compared to 1,300, and 14 submarines compared to Israel's 6, in addition to 17 frigates. Figures for the Israeli military's active personnel are conflicting; Global Firepower cites 634,500, possibly including reserves, while other sources estimate the active force at around 170,000.
Where does each side excel
Turkey: Size, geography, and industry. The local component in its defense industry has risen to more than 85%, and its exports reached about $10 billion in 2025, with leadership in drones and membership in NATO.
Israel: Quality, meaning fighter jets, intelligence, electronic warfare, precision munitions, and air defense. It possesses an F-35 fleet, while Türkiye was removed from the program after purchasing the S-400.
Israel and Netanyahu publicly oppose its return to the nuclear agreement. Israel is accused of possessing nuclear weapons, though it neither confirms nor denies this, while Türkiye does not possess such weapons.
Israeli position
Netanyahu told Channel 14 that Israel will not surrender to a "radical Sunni axis" led by Türkiye, and that he does not want a confrontation with it, but it is Turkey that wants one.
Netanyahu declined to reveal whether his doctrine included preemptive strikes, without announcing any intention of military action.
Katz warned Erdogan against challenging Israel, and Bennett said Turkey is "the next Iran".
Syria axis: Abu al-Duhur and (T4)
Syria is the closest arena of friction between the two armies , and it explains most of the recent escalation.
T4 Airbase: Ankara has been considering a defense agreement with Damascus, and a Turkish team has visited the base in Homs and Hama military airport. Israeli concerns center on the potential deployment of Turkish air defense systems and drones there, which could restrict Israeli freedom of flight. Reports in April 2025 indicated that Israel bombed the base to prevent Turkey from establishing capabilities there.
Abu al-Duhur: On August 18, 2026, Israel bombed the base in eastern Idlib, with at least eight bombs hitting the runways and hangars, causing no casualties. The base is about 70 kilometers from the nearest point on the Turkish border. Netanyahu's office said that Israel had warned Damascus against allowing a Turkish presence there, stating that it violated the "status quo" agreement with them.
The Turkish narrative: The Turkish presidency described the allegations as "baseless." The Ministry of Defense denied the presence of any Turkish military personnel at the base before or during the raid. However, other reports indicated that a Turkish delegation visited the site hours before the strike, according to the Financial Times, and that the base was undergoing renovations. The Turkish presidency, according to The National, did not rule out any possible deployment.
The US position: US envoy Tom Barrack said Washington was "deeply concerned" and that the strikes were "an unnecessary escalation".
Current realistic scenarios
The numbers favor Türkiye in terms of size, land and sea power and industry, and Israel in terms of air force, intelligence and air defense.
There are no land borders between the two countries, so it is difficult to imagine the "land war" that Yaiji describes.
According to Cumhuriyet, retired Brigadier General Ali Er believes that Israel will limit itself to air operations and that striking a NATO country is unlikely. He argues that the most likely friction remains in Syria, where Israeli airstrikes intersect with Turkish influence, rather than in a direct confrontation.