Peking University scholars talk about three reasons for the deterioration of Sino-US relations

Public opinion generally believes that the US-China relationship has dropped to a freezing point since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in recent years. As to why, the two sides disagree. Wang Jisi, dean of the Institute for International Strategy at Peking University, dubbed "China's most influential American observer" by Chinese media, said on Friday that there were three reasons behind this. Some scholars have different views.

Kurt Campbell, coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs at the US National Security Council , made it clear last year that the nearly half-century era of "engagement" between the US and China is over, and competition will be the main theme of the new era of relations between the two countries. David M. Lampton , a China expert who served as chairman of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations from 1988 to 1997 , said more bluntly recently that the current U.S.-China relationship has fallen to the early 1970s, that is, Nixon. The lowest point before visiting China.

On this issue, the United States and China seem to have reached a consensus. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the beginning of Biden's presidency last year that China-US relations have deviated from the normal track in the past few years and have fallen into the most difficult situation since the establishment of diplomatic relations.

Unresolved differences in political systems?

Wang Jisi, dean of the Institute for International Strategy at Peking University, said Friday at the 8th Tang Ninth Memorial Lecture held by the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank, that there are three main reasons for the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations, and differences in political systems are one of them.

"In China's view, the confrontation between capitalism and imperialism, represented by the United States, and socialism, represented by China, will only increase tensions between the two countries."

Wang Jisi said that the more and more frequent frictions between the two countries in trade, investment, technology and other fields have made Chinese leaders and business people more clearly aware that problems in these fields not only reflect the differences in the economic interests of the two countries, but also reflects their differences in political systems. Therefore, as long as China adheres to the path of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" and refuses to make fundamental changes in the political system, they must be prepared for a long-term strategic competition with the United States.

It is worth noting that Yu Maochun, former US Secretary of State Pompeo's China adviser and senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, also said at a US congressional hearing last year that the US should no longer ignore the CCP and the free world system. Huge differences in politics and ideology. A completely free international trade market system and China's "socialist market economy" cannot coexist peacefully.

The 73 -year-old Wang Jisi occupies a pivotal position in the study of China's international politics. He has served as the director of the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the dean of the School of International Relations of Peking University. He also served as a member of the Foreign Policy Advisory Committee of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2008 to 2016 . as a visiting scholar or visiting professor. Therefore, his views are often regarded as a window into China's position.

Wang Jisi said in the lecture that since Xi Jinping was elected as the country's leader in 2012 , China's foreign policy has further demonstrated Xi Jinping's main purpose of "carrying forward the fighting spirit and enhancing the fighting ability". After the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017 , the Chinese government launched a tougher counterattack against the United States' China policy and actions, and "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy" became a hot topic in the news.

However, Yokogawa, an American political commentator, believes that China is the provocateur, and the United States is just maintaining the established international order.

"The development of the CCP's (influence), especially in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and its relations with neighboring countries, the authorities have adopted an active offensive posture, which means that it has changed the balance of power in the region. In this case The so-called 'containment' of the United States is largely aimed at maintaining the original international order."

China Abandoning "Taoguang Yanghui"?

Wang Jisi mentioned that 2012 coincided with the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China, and two major events during that period changed China's attitude towards the United States. First, the 2008 financial crisis wreaked havoc on the U.S. economy, and China quickly emerged from the storm. Second, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed Japan in 2010 to become the world's second largest economy. These achievements have boosted China's confidence. As a result, China gradually ignored Deng Xiaoping's diplomatic strategic thought of "keeping a low profile". In his view, China has since gained a new understanding of the balance of power between the United States and China, which is a major reason for the transformation of the relationship between the two countries.

Wang Jisi also said that changes in the political landscape of the United States in recent years have also affected its attitude toward China. He said the rise of populism, protectionism and nationalism had made China an easy target for the United States, with former President Donald Trump representing America's dissatisfaction with China, and American identity politics still prevalent under the Biden administration. In other words, changes in the internal conditions of the two countries have also led to a continued decline in Sino-US relations.

However, current affairs commentator Yokogawa pointed out that the foreshadowing of a comprehensive setback in relations between the two countries was planted decades ago, but in the past decade, Xi Jinping has stopped covering up these disputes.

"The problems in US-China relations have been accumulated over a long period of time and are not created by Xi Jinping. In other words, I think the main reason for the recent deterioration in US-China relations is that the CCP cannot cover up (these problems), so Xi Jinping simply does not cover them up. , also abandoned 'to keep a low profile'."

Indeed, Xi Jinping has emphasized in recent years that it is necessary to recognize the general trend of "rising in the east and descending in the west" and actively participate in the construction of a "new international order".

Night Talk to Zhongnanhai: Xi Jinping's heavy sentence on Bo Xilai is just to prove that he is not "A Dou"?

In the previous article of this column, "Bo Xilai's Chongqing Initiatives Are All Political Pilots for Xi Jinping", we have analyzed to readers and listeners that after the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in 2007, the A tacit understanding has been reached between Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai, who are members of the new Politburo Standing Committee and Politburo members. That is, when Xi Jinping succeeds Hu Jintao at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, he, Bo Xilai, will play the role of the party's deputy in the new Politburo Standing Committee. After the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, what Bo Xilai did when he was in charge of Chongqing, whether it was "singing the red and fighting the black" or "equalizing the rich and the poor", was probably the content of the tacit understanding between him and Xi Jinping: to take Chongqing as a "" "Political Test Field" to conduct "active and beneficial exploration" for Xi Jinping's ruling line and policy of turning left after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

I remember that in late July 2013, during the period from rehearsal to the performance of Bo Xilai's trial show, some free news media outside mainland China specially named Bo Xilai, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 17th Central Committee of the CPC, when he was in power in Chongqing. During the meeting, except General Secretary Hu Jintao, the other eight members of the Standing Committee listed the timetable for their visits to Chongqing, including: in December 2008, Wen Jiabao visited Chongqing; in February 2009, Jia Qinglin visited Chongqing; in July, Li Keqiang visited Chongqing In September 2010, Li Changchun inspected Chongqing; in November, Zhou Yongkang inspected Chongqing; in December, Xi Jinping inspected Chongqing; in March 2011, He Guoqiang inspected Chongqing; in April, Wu Bangguo inspected Chongqing; from the end of May to the beginning of June, Jia Qinglin inspected Chongqing again .

It is not difficult to come to the conclusion that the then-premier Wen Jiabao and the then-first vice-premier Li Keqiang are all the eight standing committee members who visited Chongqing during different periods of time when Bo Xilai was in charge of Chongqing. The contents of the inspections at that time were all purely economic work. First, when the two inspected Chongqing respectively, Bo Xilai's "singing red" and Wang Lijun's "striking black" had not yet started. When Jia Qinglin went there for the first time, neither "fighting black" nor "singing red" officially appeared, so after Li Changchun, Zhou Yongkang, Xi Jinping, He Guoqiang, and Wu Bangguo all went to Chongqing to sing "red song" with Bo Xilai on stage , Jia Qinglin made a special trip to "make up for this lesson".

In this way, it is estimated that Li Keqiang, who had no attitude at the time, also regarded Bo Xilai as the same as Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. At that time, among the nine standing members of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the "very thin people" also accounted for one-third. Second, the core figure of this very thin faction is not Zhou Yongkang, but Xi Jinping. More importantly, He Guoqiang, Wu Bangguo, Li Changchun and Jia Qinglin, who were members of the Politburo Standing Committee at that time, were all key figures in the previous Politburo who supported Xi Jinping as Hu Jintao's successor. Therefore, it can be said that the Politburo Standing Committee members of General Secretary Hu Jintao in his second term were those who supported Xi.

In the previous article of this column, the author recalled to readers and audiences that when Xi Jinping was still the successor of the party general secretary, he went to Chongqing in person to "sing red" with Bo Xilai, and condolences with Wang Lijun to the so-called "fighting black" model. , and Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun used to have such a tacit understanding, saying that their "singing red and fighting black" and other "many experiences are of exemplary significance". According to Bo Xilai, Xi Jinping at that time had issued instructions nine times in succession as the crown prince, requiring the whole party and the whole country to "conscientiously summarize and promote some practices in Chongqing".

At the end of 2010, after Xi Jinping made a high-profile appearance in Chongqing to support Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun, an online article on the CCP’s official media said: A few days ago, Vice President Xi Jinping went to Chongqing to investigate and investigate the construction of public rental housing in Chongqing. , fight against black and evil, singing, reading and preaching, etc. are all highly praised. Xi Jinping's praise for these causes related to people's livelihood, traditional values ​​and social justice is of course applause for the work of Chongqing in the past two years. However, it can be seen from Xi Jinping's speech that he did not just give Chongqing applause. Xi Jinping's high expectations for Chongqing's future are obvious. For example, while affirming that Chongqing has done a good job of "fighting gangsters and eradicating evil" and "made great contributions" to safeguarding the safety of Chongqing's society, Xi Jinping expects Chongqing to "strike down gangsters and eradicate evil" to make persistent efforts to advance in depth. In the applause given by Xi Jinping to Chongqing, it is foreseeable that some good practices in Chongqing may be widely implemented in other provinces, cities and even the whole country as a "model".

The author takes the trouble to quote this piece of flattery article here, to illustrate the fact that the author of this flattery net article analyzed the tacit understanding between the then Crown Prince Xi, Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun very well, and this article has a good understanding of Chongqing. The expectation that the "model" will be widely implemented in other provinces, cities and even the whole country has become an important part of Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream" in the future.

This is why, in fact, after the fall of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun's imprisonment, the CCP's state media not only never criticized or questioned the words "singing the red and fighting the black", but at that time the official media at all levels received unacceptable reports of "Bo Xilai". In the news and comments on the Xilai and Wang Lijun Incidents, there were "notices issued by the central government" involving "singing red" and "strikes against black". In the domestic media at that time, there were only some unofficial online media who dared to "blind the ball" and made "singing red and fighting black" a derogatory term.

What is even more ironic is that after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, Xi Jinping actually replaced the "special campaign against gangsters and evil" invented by Bo Xilai in Chongqing, or jointly invented by Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun. One word, "action" was replaced by "struggle", that is, the "special struggle against gangsters and evil", which was carried out nationwide. In this way, Xi Jinping turned the "successful experience of the "special campaign against gangsters and evils" led by Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun in Chongqing, which he personally went to Chongqing to strongly support and highly praise, into his own "thought of socialism with Chinese characteristics". , an important part of how to realize the "Chinese Dream".

In order to convince both inside and outside the party that this "special struggle against gangsters and evil" is indeed Xi Jinping's "patent", the CCP's official media was instructed to hype that Xi Jinping had paid great attention to "safety construction" as early as when he was secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee. He personally served as the leader of the "Safe Zhejiang Construction Leading Group". But it’s okay not to emphasize it deliberately. Such a deliberate emphasis is naturally reminiscent of when Bo Xilai was in charge of Chongqing, and Xi Jinping strongly praised the construction of “safe Chongqing” jointly led by Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun.

In May 2011, Xinhua News Agency published a comment "What does Xi Jinping's affirmation of Chongqing's "singing red and fighting black" show? ". The "core prompt" of the comment is: "When Xi Jinping recently investigated, he affirmed Chongqing's practice of singing popular songs, reading classics, telling stories, and spreading proverbs to educate ideals and beliefs. With the achievements in strengthening social security, I hope Chongqing will conscientiously sum up its experience and further form a long-term mechanism for building a safe Chongqing.” I

remember the year before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, that is, in 2016, when Bo Xilai was imprisoned4 It has been more than a year, but the author searched for "Peaceful Chongqing" on Baidu, and found that the entry was actually a content specially prepared for Bo Xilai after his fall. This entry is very long and begins with a quote by Bo Xilai. The content is: the common people are our "food and clothing parents", they are in a hurry and write petitions, of course we must take it seriously. Today, when the people are the masters of the country, the masses must be able to fight a lawsuit, and they can win a lawsuit if they are justified. Law enforcement officers must control themselves, shock the bad guys, and help the people. ——Bo Xilai, former secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee.

In the specific content of the entry, the expression "Bo Xilai, the former secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee" appeared repeatedly, and at the same time, Zhou Yongkang, the then secretary of the Central Political and Legal Committee, and Xi Jinping, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Vice-President of the State, told Bo Xilai to lead the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee to "safe Chongqing." "National-level recognition" of the construction was introduced in great detail.

When Bo Xilai was in power in Chongqing, a book called "Chongqing Model" was published, and a man named Yang Fan was one of the three authors. The author once introduced himself, "I am the second author and main planner of the book "Chongqing Model". Our book affirms the achievements of Chongqing in the first three years." According to Su Wei, another author of the book: "As a famous economist, Yang Fan can dig the connotation of the 'Chongqing Model' from a deeper root, and analyze the impact of the 'Chongqing Model' on China and the world from a higher level. ."

This Yang Fan is also a "red second generation". Back then, he was in the same class as Bo Xilai's younger brother Bo Xicheng in primary and secondary schools. When he was a child, he was with Liu Shaoqi's son Liu Yuan and Xi Jinping. Bo Xilai was called the second brother along with Bo Xicheng. They are all Bo Xilai's "followers".

Yang Fan, who was already a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, titled the preface of the book "Chongqing Model" written by China Economic Publishing House, "New Starting Point, New Turning Point and New Model of China's Development". The article boasted: "One of the reasons why the Chinese Communist Party is great is that it has been able to combine and unify the opposites that Westerners often think are diametrically opposed, and Chinese people think that they are like horses and cows, to create a Another miracle... Now, the Communist Party of China has creatively started to combine and unify 'socialism' and 'market economy'. The 'Chongqing Model' is a model that combines socialism and market economy better. It is a model in which the Communist Party organization maintains and develops its own nature better, and the social vitality is more fully burst out."

"Historical materialism believes that history is created by the masses of the people, and 'the masses are the real heroes', but as the people Representatives of the masses and outstanding figures also play a unique and huge role in the development of history - although they cannot determine history itself, they can determine historical events. Therefore, when it comes to the 'Chongqing Model', it is necessary to talk about leading parties at all levels in Chongqing. Organizations, governments at all levels, and the 32 million Chongqing people created this new model of Chongqing’s ruler, Bo Xilai.” The

author strongly recommends readers who have some knowledge of the content of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” After reading the original book and Yang Fan's preface to the "Chongqing Model" with the audience, you will definitely feel the same deja vu as the author.

At that time, Yang Fan boasted arrogantly: "Bo Xilai is one of the few 'personal officials' in our party and our country. Why are there so few 'personal officials'? Historically, it was due to the long-term influence of Confucianism. All officials are required to abide by etiquette and abide by the etiquette system. Therefore, officials' personalities are all 'eaten'. This is a historical gene, and it also affects us now. From a practical point of view, every Communist Party member must Pay attention to a high degree of organization and discipline. This is a commonality. This is originally a requirement of the party spirit, but this commonality and human personality also form a pair of contradictions. The personality of most officials is submerged by the commonality. Bo Xilai, it is Combine the commonalities with the Communists and the personalities of outstanding figures well, and unify it into one of our party's senior officials with higher party spirit."

Nine years ago, this column broadcast and published "Xi Jinping has been in awe of Bo Xilai since he was a child ." "Story", which is about the fact that before Bo Xilai's trial, the author has already received a "dumb" about the "friendship interaction" between Bo Xilai, Gu Kailai and Wang Lijun, saying that Wang Lijun was arrested by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and Guoan After being detained by the Ministry, he confessed to a large number of "political crimes" of Bo Xilai, one of which is that he is actually "unaccustomed", expressing respect for Xi Jinping face to face but slandering and belittling Xi Jinping behind his back. The specific content is that Bo Gukailai once told him Wang Lijun personally, saying that Bo Xilai once asked Bo Gukai who was in Beijing at the time and said, "Xi Adou wants to 'rule' Chongqing, do you want to come and see?"

This is one of the main reasons why Bo Xilai, who was arrested under the order of Hu Jintao, was not given light orders by Xi Jinping after Xi Jinping took over as general secretary.

The statement that Bo Xilai despised Xi Jinping since he was a child, I have heard about it as early as when Xi Jinping was the secretary of the local Party committee in Fujian. At that time, it was because of the author's book "The Princelings of the Communist Party of China" that received numerous feedbacks from readers. One of them was that a person in the "Prince Circle" came to the United States and called the author about Xi Jinping's childhood when Bo Xicheng and Bo Xining called him Bo Xilai is the "second brother"; Xi Jinping, who liked to play football since childhood, used to play with Bo Xicheng and Bo Xining before his family was expelled from Zhongnanhai. Bo Xilai, who was also a bit taller than Xi Jinping at the time, only looked up to him. share. The awe in his childhood determined that once Xi Jinping was "assisted" by Bo Xilai in the future, he would definitely become an "A Dou".

The article "The Story of Xi Jinping's Reverence for Bo Xilai since he was a child" was published in August 2013. The following year, in April 2014, Yang Fan said in an exclusive interview with the overseas "Big Event" magazine about the relevant content of the author's article: "In the past, it was indeed the case, they all regarded Bo Xilai as the second brother. The original Bo Xilai, Xi Jinping, Wang Qishan, Yu Zhengsheng, and Liu Yuan do have a very close relationship. From what I know about them, they really want to save the party and the country. In fact, Bo and Xizhi There is no major conflict between the two."

Shortly after Bo Xilai was "censored" in 2012, Bo Xicheng sent a text message to his friends, political and business scholars, including Yang Fan, saying: "The Bo Xilai case has been confirmed by the central government, everyone should take care of themselves. No need to work hard."

After Xi Jinping came to power, although he ordered Bo Gu Kailai to "keep people under the sword", he gave Bo Xilai a life sentence. One of the measures taken by the indignant Yang Fan to vent his anger on Bo Xilai's behalf was to publicly call on the authorities to "should check all doctoral dissertations since the reform and opening up." For example, as Xi Jinping said, "the people who are around 60 years old... have long been in high positions and have made enough profits, the 'doctors' who were twenty or thirty years ago." For details, please refer to the article "Revenge Yang Fan for Xilai's "Second Brother" to challenge Xi Jinping? " article.