Scholar: Xi Jinping is likely to be in power for another decade

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a government work report last month that risks and challenges to China's development have increased significantly this year. He also admitted after the closing of the National People's Congress that this would be his last year as prime minister. However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is likely to remain in power for another decade, despite mounting uncertainty ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, two longtime observers of Chinese politics said on Thursday.

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A few weeks ago, Li Keqiang said at the Premier's press conference that this is his last year as Prime Minister and they are still facing a complex and severe situation. But he immediately said that under the "strong leadership" of the Party Central Committee with Xi Jinping at its core, China's economy will surely be able to "climb over the hurdles".

Public opinion generally believes that Li Keqiang's remarks indicate that he will follow the rules formed in the era of Deng Xiaoping and resign after serving two terms, but Xi Jinping will not resign after the 20th National Congress.

At least another ten years?

Mr. Lin Heli, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in the United States and a visiting professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said on Thursday at a seminar held by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in the United States, that Xi Jinping will obviously be re-elected after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. President of the country, and probably for another ten years.

"I am certain that Xi Jinping will achieve his wish at this year's 20th National Congress, which is to be re-elected for a third term as president of the country. I also think that Xi Jinping is likely to be re-elected for a fourth term."

Lin Heli analyzed that in recent years, Xi Jinping has intensified his suppression of the "princelings" composed of descendants of CCP veterans and the children of former Politburo members. For example, he said, the Beijing authorities' recent attack on HNA Group and Evergrande Group is to purge Jiang Zemin's faction and other forces within the party.

The China affairs commentator also said that many of Xi Jinping's political enemies have been dispersed. He is currently the only member of the Politburo Standing Committee who has full control over the CCP's "gun" and "knife handle", and no one can shake his position.

However, Lin Heli said that Xi Jinping will also make some concessions after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, allocating some seats on the Politburo Standing Committee, Politburo members and Central Committee members to the so-called "opposition forces" within the party. However, he expects that Xi Jinping's faction will hold three of the seven Politburo Standing Committee seats, and the operating space of other factions at the top of the party will be further reduced.

Who will be the next Prime Minister?

If Xi Jinping's re-election is almost a foregone conclusion, there are still many variables in the selection of the next prime minister. Observers have a lot of speculation about this, but most believe that the people who are more likely to succeed Li Keqiang include Wang Yang, chairman of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, vice premiers of the State Council Han Zheng and Hu Chunhua, Shanghai party secretary Li Qiang, and Chongqing party secretary Chen Min'er.

Radio France Internationale (RFI) recently published a commentary titled "Farewell, Li Keqiang", saying that with the exception of Li Peng, who is called the "June 4th Butcher" by many, Li Keqiang is better than any prime minister in the post-Deng era. Even more mediocre, they are inferior to Zhao Ziyang, who vigorously promoted economic reforms, Zhu Rongji, who pushed China to join the WTO, and Wen Jiabao, who was dubbed "China's best actor".

Joseph Fewsmith, a professor of international relations and political science at Boston University, also said at Thursday's seminar that China has had many prime ministers with distinct personalities, but Li Keqiang is clearly not among them.

"China has always had very strong prime ministers like Zhu Rongji, Zhou Enlai and others, but Xi Jinping has not followed that model. The authorities might try to elevate the prime minister's status, which would be interesting and might ease China's economic problems."

Foster said he also thinks Xi Jinping will stay in power for at least another decade because there is no sign yet that Xi Jinping will signal a successor at the 20th Party Congress.

Does the epidemic give Xi Jinping a headache?

In addition to the high-level power struggle, the increasingly severe Chinese domestic new crown epidemic has also become one of the focuses of the outside world before the 20th National Congress. China's National Health Commission reported that more than 1,300 new confirmed cases and 21,000 asymptomatic infections were added nationwide on Wednesday, with the number of single-day infections hitting a new high in more than two years.

Although many people in the industry believe that the "dynamic clearing" policy that the Chinese government has always adhered to can no longer withstand such a large-scale epidemic, the authorities are still reluctant to make substantial adjustments. Last month, when chairing a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee, Xi Jinping emphasized that we must adhere to the dynamic clearing and curb the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible.

Deng Yuwen, a researcher at China's strategic analysis think tank and an independent scholar, said in an article in DW on Tuesday that in a sensitive period like before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping undoubtedly does not want to see the situation that the "dynamic clearing" policy fails due to the out-of-control epidemic in Shanghai. He wrote that if China's claimed "anti-epidemic myth" goes bust, even if it does not affect his re-election, it would do significant damage to his authority and leadership.

Lin Heli said at the seminar that this once again reflects Xi Jinping's willful behavior.

"We can see that Xi Jinping is a very stubborn person, and it is difficult for others to convince him to change his mind, even though there are signs that China is developing a new generation of new crown vaccines based on American formulas, not traditional Chinese formulas."

The Sixth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held last year decided that the 20th National Congress will be held in the second half of this year, but the specific time has not yet been determined.