Somalia: new pass of arms at the top of the executive

The Prime Minister and the President of Somalia engaged in a new pass of arms on Thursday, which threatens to stir up tensions in this country which has been waiting for more than a year for a presidential election and is experiencing a resurgence of activity by radical Islamists. shebab.

The rivalry between the two men had already threatened the fragile political and security balance of this country in the Horn of Africa on several occasions last year. In the early morning, Prime Minister Mohamed Roble 's office announced in a statement that the African Union (AU) representative in Somalia, Francisco Madeira , was "persona non grata for engaging in acts incompatible with his status . " , ordering him to leave the country within 48 hours.

No explanation was given to justify this decision targeting the Mozambican diplomat, special representative of the AU Commission in Somalia since 2015. In the hours that followed, President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed , known as Farmajo , announced in a statement that it "invalidates" this "illegal action which threatens our relations with the international community" .

"Farmajo is the guardian and guarantor of the sovereignty of the country" , affirmed the presidency, indicating that it instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs "to convey the apologies of the federal government to the AU for the illegitimate and reckless decision to an unauthorized service" to do so.

Civil war

This public showdown at the top of the executive follows precedents in September and December - which saw the president suspend the powers of his prime minister - and raise fears that the country could slide into civil war .

This new showdown "shows that the government is still deeply divided and the lack of consensus is preventing progress on just about everything, including the elections ," said Omar Mahmood , analyst at the International Crisis Group . President Farmajo's mandate expired in February 2021 without his having managed to organize a poll, plunging the country into a deep political crisis. Since then, the process has progressed painfully.

Under Somalia's complex electoral system , state assemblies and delegates invested by a myriad of clans and sub-clans choose the legislators who, in turn, appoint the president. Upper house elections were completed at the end of 2021. With 247 seats filled out of 275, the lower house election is 89.8% complete.

Presidential election

As of Wednesday, 177 legislators had been officially registered, theoretically allowing the process to continue towards the election of the presidents of the chambers, the last stage before the election of the president . But political obstacles remain.

Elections for four lower house seats were recently suspended, including that of a Farmajo insider, Fahad Yasin , who was sacked as intelligence chief by Roble in September. Sixteen seats also remain to be filled in the southern state of Jubaland , where a dispute between regional authorities led by Ahmed Madobe and the federal government has been going on for more than two years.

A quick resolution of this dispute "will be difficult because there is almost no room for compromise on either side ," said Omar Mahmood. According to him, "the best case scenario (for a presidential election) would realistically be around the middle of the year" .

Attacks

The repeated postponements worry the international community, which believes that they divert the attention of the authorities from other crucial subjects for the country, such as the severe drought in progress and the insurrection of the radical Islamists of Shebab .

The United States has announced in particular to restrict visas for personalities accused of "obstruction" in the electoral process. In recent months, the shebab, affiliated with Al-Qaeda and which remain established in vast rural areas, have intensified their attacks in the country, claiming responsibility in particular for two spectacular attacks on March 24.

After an attack on Mogadishu airport, the most secure place in the country, which killed three people, a double attack in the center of the country killed at least 48 people that day, including opposition MP Amina Mohamed Abdi .