On March 26, Honduras established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China and severed it with the Republic of China in Taiwan. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen pointed out on the same day that Taiwan "will not engage in meaningless 'money diplomacy' competition with China." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference on the 27th that there are no preconditions for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Honduras and China. She pointed out that Taiwan is "accustomed to playing money diplomacy" and warned that "money diplomacy has no way out." Mao Ning also said that in recent years, Panama and other countries have successively established or resumed diplomatic relations with China without any preconditions. However, the Asian Fact Checking Lab checked Mao Ning's above statement and found that these countries in Latin America or the Caribbean have received loans or assistance after they established diplomatic relations with China.
In-depth analysis:
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on March 26 , terminating diplomatic relations with Honduras (Taiwan translation: Honduras) from the same day. Honduras' decision to switch to diplomatic recognition has been the subject of months of speculation. Currently, Taiwan has only 13 diplomatic allies, seven of which are located in Latin America or the Caribbean.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said at a press conference on March 27 that Honduras' decision to establish diplomatic relations with China was a political decision based on the "one-China principle" without any preconditions. She also pointed out that "the establishment of diplomatic relations is not a bargaining chip, and in recent years, countries including Panama, Dominica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua have successively established or resumed diplomatic relations with China without any preconditions attached."
She even accused Taiwan of being accustomed to "money diplomacy". Mao Ning even said that he would tell the Taiwan authorities, "Money diplomacy has no way out, and any attempt to go against the trend of history is doomed to end in failure."
Just before the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Honduras, Reuters reported on the 22nd that Hong Guo asked Taiwan for 2.5 billion US dollars in financial aid. Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina refuted it at the time: 2.5 billion US dollars was "not financial aid". It is a "negotiated refinancing mechanism".
Is there a prerequisite for establishing diplomatic relations with China?
Take Honduras as an example, in the "Joint Communique between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Honduras on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations" published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs , it clearly echoes Beijing's "one China principle" and mentions that the government of the Republic of Honduras recognizes that there is only one China in the world. In China, the government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The government of the Republic of Honduras immediately severed "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, and promised not to have any official relations with Taiwan, nor to conduct any official exchanges.
Although China claims that this is a "political decision" made by Hong, countries that have established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China must declare that they have severed diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in Taiwan, ceased official exchanges with Taiwan, and declared that the People's Republic of China is the only legal government representing China , otherwise it is impossible to establish diplomatic relations with it.
Does China provide financial aid to countries that have severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan?
Deborah Brautigam, professor of international politics and economics at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), wrote in her book "The Dragon's Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa" (The Dragon's Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa pointed out that the Chinese government is generally extremely opposed to providing cash to aid any country, but there are often exceptions to this rule when Beijing attempts to establish diplomatic relations with countries that have severed diplomatic ties with Taipei.
In her book, she cited Costa Rica's decision to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing in 2007 as an example, and mentioned that the Costa Rican court issued an order in the same year that China and Costa Rica established diplomatic relations, forcing the Costa Rica government to publish the content of the official diplomatic agreement signed with China. The agreement includes China's commitment to provide a cash payment of US$30 million within two years of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and another US$100 million to be delivered through China's conventional "one-stop" (turn-key) scheme. “Although the Colombian government did not announce the agreement on the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, the fact that the financial assistance was included in the official diplomatic agreement instead of being transferred to someone’s private bank account still caused concern.”
Bo Dirong, director of the university's China-Africa Studies Initiative, told Asia Fact-Checking Lab that Beijing's use of incentives to curry favor with Taiwan's few diplomatic allies has often been linked to Taiwan's domestic politics. "In recent years, 'money diplomacy' has sometimes heated up and sometimes slowed down, reflecting the actions taken by Taiwan's leaders. When Taiwan's Kuomintang was in power, money diplomacy slowed down, and when the Democratic Progressive Party was in power, it heated up."
Multiple options for Chinese-style aid
China established the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) in 2018, which was under the Ministry of Commerce before its establishment. A report by the Center for Global Development ( CGD), an American think tank , once pointed out that China International Development Cooperation Agency’s aid plan is mainly focused on Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Pacific Island countries and Africa.
It is worth noting that after China established the “Belt and Road” project in 2013, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, which were not included in the original plan of the “Belt and Road” in particular, have also joined in recent years and signed special agreements with China . The "Memorandum of Understanding" has become the standard equipment for establishing diplomatic relations with China in the past ten years. Panama, which established diplomatic relations with China in 2017, is the first Latin American country to join the “Belt and Road” initiative . After Dominica, El Salvador and Nicaragua established diplomatic relations with China, they all joined the “Belt and Road Initiative”.
The Center for Global Development pointed out that in addition to the traditional "fish granting" method, China's foreign aid has also developed a variety of business models and complete projects with Chinese characteristics through the "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
What did Panama, Dominica, El Salvador and Nicaragua gain after establishing diplomatic relations with China?
The Boston University Global Development Policy Center (Boston University Global Development Policy Center) has been tracking China’s lending in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since 2005. The latest statistics show that by 2022, China’s national development The Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China have issued a total of US$136 billion in loans to Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly between 2010 and 2015.
According to the statistical database of Boston University in cooperation with the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) , Dominica received a loan of US$600 million from the Export-Import Bank of China in 2019 after the establishment of diplomatic relations for energy power supply projects. The center's latest report pointed out that during the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic in 2021, China has not signed new official financing commitments with LAC countries through the above two banks for two consecutive years.
Rebecca Ray, a senior fellow at Boston University's Center for Global Development Policy, told Asia Fact Checking Lab that recorded Chinese lending to the region does not appear to be high in recent years. domestic politics of LAC countries.
For example, Rebeca, for example, after President Nayib Bukele took office in El Salvador, he had his own priority agenda; Nicaragua chose to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic, except for joining the Belt and Road Initiative in 2022. In addition, Nicaragua has also received a large amount of new crown vaccine assistance.
Whether to establish diplomatic relations with China or not is indeed related to the amount of assistance received. Bradley Parks, executive director of the College of William & Mary's (College of William & Mary) specialized in China's foreign aid project (AidData), once said in the co-authored book "Banking on Beijing" (Banking on Beijing) that Beijing With a few exceptions, no aid will be provided to countries that diplomatically recognize Taiwan, "while countries that have severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan receive an average of 1.6 projects from China per year."
In addition to aid projects, economic and trade exchanges and investment with China are also valued by relevant countries. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between Honduras and China, the British "Financial Times" quoted an unnamed Taiwanese diplomat in Latin America as saying that what the relevant countries "really want is not more aid, but trade and investment."
Based on public data, the Asian Fact Checking Lab has sorted out that the investment in infrastructure construction in the four LAC countries that established diplomatic relations with China after 2016 has indeed increased. The relevant information is listed as follows:
Panama: Established diplomatic relations with China in 2017. According to data from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a Washington think tank , since 2017, the amount of investment and infrastructure construction from China has reached 1.86 billion US dollars.
In addition, a number of Panamanian media reported after former President Juan Carlos Varela (Juan Carlos Varela) who led the establishment of diplomatic relations with China left office that China donated 143 million U.S. dollars after the establishment of diplomatic relations with Panama. Sever the impression of a valuable consideration relationship."
Dominica: Established diplomatic relations in 2018. According to AEI data, since 2019, the amount of investment and infrastructure construction from China has reached 490 million US dollars.
Another study pointed out that in order to establish diplomatic relations between China and Dominica, China is estimated to have provided US $3 billion in financial assistance. In 2021 , the two countries will also sign the second "Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement". Ambassador Zhang Run pointed out in an interview with multinational media that since the establishment of diplomatic relations four years ago, the bilateral trade between China and the Dominican Republic has increased by 90%, with an average annual growth rate of more than 25%.
El Salvador: Established diplomatic relations in 2018. It is reported that China provided El Salvador with more than 3,000 tons of rice that year, and promised to provide US$150 million in aid for projects that promote local social and technological development.
Nicaragua: After the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2021, China immediately promised to donate 1 million doses of the new crown vaccine . In addition, after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Nigeria, it was reported that Beijing provided an unknown amount of supplies to the anti-riot force of the Nicaraguan police. Nicaragua, a low-income Latin American country that has suffered years of political turmoil and social unrest, has a police force led by the father-in-law of much-maligned authoritarian President Daniel Ortega.
In conclusion:
The Asian Fact Checking Lab found that the People’s Republic of China did set preconditions for the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, and provided a large amount of economic and non-economic aid and incentives to attract countries to sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan. without premise" is misleading.
Asia Fact Check Lab ( Asia Fact Check Lab ) is a new unit established for today's complex media environment and emerging communication ecology.
The United Nations pointed out that the fertility rate in Hong Kong is the lowest in the world: Brainwashing education further affects the willingness to bear children
The latest report of the United Nations reveals that Hong Kong's "decreasing birthrate" problem is "the most serious in the world" and the situation is the worst in 30 years. Some scholars pointed out that the birth rate in Hong Kong has always been low, but the education system has been seriously distorted in recent years, and it has been reduced to brainwashing education, which has further reduced the willingness of Hong Kong people to have children.
The United Nations Population Fund released its annual "State of World Population" report on Wednesday (19th) . As one of the "Asian Tigers", Hong Kong has the lowest fertility rate in the world, with an average of only 0.8 children per woman, followed by South Korea (0.9). , Singapore (1.0), Macau and San Marino (1.1), China and Aruba (1.2). The birth rate is lower than Japan (1.3), which is known for its low birth rate and aging population.
The Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Government announced earlier that the fertility rate in Hong Kong has generally shown a downward trend in the past 30 years. The total fertility rate dropped from 1,281 live births per 1,000 women in 1991 to 772 the year before, a record high in 30 years. new low.
Sociologist Zhong Jianhua pointed out to this station on Friday (21st) that the education system has been seriously distorted in recent years, which has further reduced the already low fertility desire of Hong Kong people.
Zhong Jianhua said: The education system has become an ideological tool, pure indoctrination, and sometimes even what we call brainwashing education, purely for brainwashing. Then I will ask a question: Why should I give birth to a child to brainwash you?
Chung Jianhua pointed out that the aging population in Hong Kong has become a major challenge.
Zhong Jianhua said: The birth rate is so low. From the perspective of demographic theory, if the average birth rate of women cannot reach 2.1, population replacement cannot be caused. If there are no other factors, it means that there is no "exchange of blood", or If a large number of people are imported, the population is bound to age slowly over time.
The blood exchange plan is also difficult to prevent the aging population
Zhong Jianhua also emphasized that even though the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government has promoted the "Gao Caitong" program to introduce migrants in recent years, the problem of population aging may not be alleviated.
Zhong Jianhua said: At present, the government hopes that the number of applicants for "Gao Caitong" will reach 35,000 a year. Even if they (migrants) come in, will he be happy to let his children grow up here? In recent years, there have been fewer international student registrations in international schools, which means that more foreigners may leave or their children do not study in Hong Kong. When "Gao Cai Tong" accepts some people to come to Hong Kong, will they, like Hong Kong parents, do everything possible to send their children to study abroad?
Governments of various countries have made suggestions in recent years to encourage births
According to the United Nations population report, two-thirds of the world's population lives in countries or regions with low fertility rates. In recent years, governments of various countries have come up with suggestions to encourage fertility.
Among them, Hungary announced this year that women who have given birth under the age of 30 will be exempted from personal income tax for life. In 2021, South Korea announced the launch of "maternity rent-free". As long as the couple have two children, they can live in a new house for free for 10 years. Singapore announced earlier that it will provide an additional subsidy of 3,000 Singapore dollars for each newborn child, increasing it to at least 11,000 Singapore dollars (65,000 Hong Kong dollars), and also giving young families with children the priority to pre-purchase HDB flats
In Hong Kong, the Legislative Council recently passed a tax amendment bill to increase the basic and additional child tax allowances from 120,000 yuan to 130,000 yuan.
As for countries with high fertility rates, they are mainly in Africa, with Niger in West Africa having the highest fertility rate at 6.7. According to the report, India's population surpasses that of China and ranks first, but by 2050, the ranking of the most populous countries will be "reshuffled". Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania will account for global population growth half.
However, the report pointed out that currently 44% of women do not have bodily autonomy and cannot freely choose contraception, medical care, whether or with whom to have sex, etc., and "this problem is bigger than the population explosion."
U.S. military officer: If the conflict in the Taiwan Strait will be more tragic than World War II
Joel Vowell, commander of the U.S. Army in Japan, warned on Thursday (20th) that the current situation is the "most challenging moment" in his 32 years in the military. If a conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait, it would be more tragic than World War II. On the other hand, Taiwan detected that the People's Liberation Army sent 19 military aircraft and 5 warships to continue activities around the Taiwan Strait on Thursday. US President Biden called French President Macron on the same day, emphasizing the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
According to comprehensive foreign reports, Wall held an online press conference on Thursday, saying that "if there is a greater disaster or conflict in the first island chain of the Indo-Pacific...it will be an economic disaster that extends to the whole world. Only in terms of human losses , which would surpass or at least equal the situation in World War II, during which thousands of soldiers of different formations lost their lives each week.”
Wall has been stationed in Europe, the Pacific, and the Middle East since 1991, and participated in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. He said the current situation was "the most challenging moment" in his 32 years in the military.
Wall also responded to the news about more than 200 US military personnel stationed in Taiwan at the press conference. He did not deny the news that the US military is stationed in Taiwan, and said that this is in line with US law and consistent Taiwan policy. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, U.S. military personnel stationed in Taiwan are committed to providing training on the weapons systems sold.
Wall said that if Taiwan "purchases a new tank, we will provide training personnel through defense contractors or the military so that they understand how the tank operates, how to launch it, how to communicate, how to maintain it." Taiwan Central News Agency Monday (17th
According to reports, in order to strengthen the combat effectiveness of the national army, the U.S. military has dispatched 100 active-duty instructors to Taiwan, and most of them have been stationed in the army's new training center and reserve brigade to give advice. In response, the Taiwan Army Command stated that all foreign-related military exchanges of the Army are handled according to the plan, and the relevant details will not be commented on. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense responded that it was "optimistic about its success."
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported on Friday (21st) that within 12 hours from 6:00 am to 6:00 pm on Thursday, it detected 19 sorties of military aircraft and 5 sub-warships sent by the People's Liberation Army to continue activities around the Taiwan Strait, 10 of which even crossed the central line of the Taiwan Strait. . The Ministry of National Defense pointed out that the national army responded with military aircraft and warships , and the shore missile system was also closely monitored throughout the process. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China has recently used Tsai Ing-wen's transit in the United States to raise threats to Taiwan and military intimidation, posing a serious challenge to regional security and stability.
On Thursday local time, US President Biden called French President Macron and European Commission President Von der Leyen, who had visited China earlier. According to the call summary released by the White House, both conversations mentioned the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
Macron said after his visit to China earlier that Taiwan should not become a vassal of the United States on the Taiwan issue, and his remarks caused controversy.
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