Washington National Military University columnist analyzes that Burmese army cannot win

Washington National Military University columnist analyzes that Burmese army cannot win

It k been more than two and a half years since the military seized power in Myanmar, and Myanmar's affairs have not received the same international support as the invasion of Ukraine.

columnist Zachary Abuza said that since Myanmar has a long history of dictatorship, many countries in the world think that the Myanmar military will win this time, so they are not involved in Myanmar affairs.

However, the columnist opined that the Burmese army will not win because it has no legitimacy and public support, and is fighting on multiple fronts.

Right now, the National Unity Government (NUG) is fighting against the coup military council forces in cooperation with more than three hundred People's Defense Force (PDF) troops and allied ethnic armed groups.

However, the columnist concluded that the reason why the Burmese army could not win was not because of the NUG, but because of the weakness of the army.

First of all, the Myanmar army's manpower is much less than expected. The Burmese army has around 200,000 soldiers and has ten infantry divisions that conduct ground operations.

Roughly, a battalion should have around two hundred soldiers, but according to an order that appeared in September 2022, a battalion is calculated at 185 soldiers, and about half of all battalions have less than 150 soldiers.

According to recently leaked documents, an infantry division has only 132 men, of which 70 have been sent to the battlefield.

The Myanmar army has been sending police officers to the battlefield since 2022. Family members of mid-ranking officers were also given military training.

Last August, the Burmese military tried to use civilian department employees as militia groups.

About thirty thousand soldiers have been killed since the start of the military revolution, and according to the NUG, more than thirteen thousand soldiers have defected.

In the Burmese army, the number of military officers arrested and prosecuted for disobeying orders to leave the battlefield is increasing.

In the three military academies under the Burmese military, the number of qualified cadets is decreasing and the standard of training is also decreasing.

The military bombarded civilians across the country. As houses continue to be burned down, the number of young people who want to join the army is decreasing.

The second reason is that the military's strategy is not working.

The strategy being used by the Burmese military to suppress the dictatorial anti-revolutionary forces is not the kind of strategy that will be carried out with the trust and respect and cooperation of the people.

targeted attacks on civilians; used as a human wall; It is a way to make civilians afraid by committing rape and arson. In other words, committing war crimes is the strategy of the Myanmar military.

Since this strategy did not work, today the Burmese military is able to control a much smaller area than the area it controlled before the seizure of power.

Fifty of Myanmar's three hundred and thirty townships are still under martial law, and about 12 percent of all townships are taxed by the NUG.

Despite this situation, the Burmese military has not given up on its ineffective tactics and is increasing its attacks on civilians.

The third reason, according to the columnist, is that, according to indicators showing the economic condition of the Burmese military, the military leaders no longer have much financial resources to implement their goals.

Since the military coup, Myanmar's GDP has shrunk by 12 percent and the value of the Kyat has depreciated by 250 percent.

The current inflation rate is between 14% and 20%, and people are queuing up to buy basic food items such as cooking oil because they are in short supply.

According to data from the Internal Revenue Service, which is controlled by the military council, all but one source of revenue from oil and gas industries, the government's revenue, is declining.

People are boycotting other sources of income, such as goods produced by military-owned enterprises.

That's why sales of products like Burmese beer have dropped by 70 percent, so beer shops and stores are being forced to sell them at gunpoint.

Due to US-led Western sanctions, Singapore and other countries are no longer able to use banking services, making it increasingly difficult to do business in US dollars.

Foreign investment has become almost non-existent, except from Thailand and China.

At this time of crisis, the Burmese military has increased its military spending by 50 percent to 2.7 billion dollars for this year. Less than what should be spent on health and other public services.

Burmese military leaders are people who do not understand how to drive the country's economy at all, and experts who understand the economy are in prison or abroad.

All in all, the Burmese army is fighting on multiple fronts at the same time.

The time that we are fighting like this is getting longer and the sources of income to support us are getting less and less.

In addition, the columnist opined that the strategy being used is wrong, and the legitimacy of the NUG and the people's counter-revolution are increasing.

There is no possibility that the Burmese military will win this battle or regain power.

Therefore, the international community and businesses need to work together to end the military dictatorship, the columnist said.

Internationally, the NUG can be managed like a government in the liberated areas to provide humanitarian assistance, and the health of the people. We need to help with education and law enforcement efforts.

After the end of the military dictatorship, we need to help Myanmar become a government capable of ruling and governing.

In addition, stricter sanctions need to be imposed so that the Burmese military cannot do business using US dollars and cannot buy and import military weapons.

We also need to completely ban the importation of jet fuel to Myanmar so that the civilian population cannot continue to be bombed from the air.

The columnist suggested that the NUG should also be assisted in preserving evidence and eyewitness accounts of crimes committed by the Burmese military for use in future trials.

Finally, the columnist said that businesses that continue to work in Myanmar should put the tax funds they have to pay into escrow accounts that cannot be taken from the military council.

We need to stop the Burmese military leaders from miscalculating that they still have a chance and continuing to commit crimes.

According to the actual situation on the battlefield and the economic sector, it is clear that there is not much time left for Burmese military leaders.

Leaders say they will cooperate with all groups to overthrow the military dictator

Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA); While seeing Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Rakhine Army (AA) troops.
 Twin Alliance (3).
Kachin Liberation Organization (KIO) Chairman General Imban La said at the KIO's 63rd anniversary celebration on October 25 that the military council is working with all revolutionary organizations to defeat the military dictatorship and build a federal state as promised.

KIO Chairman General Imban La said in Kachin language that the country is facing crises due to the military council and the country is headed for a state of destruction.

"Because of the military council, the whole country is facing crises from all sides. What is happening now is that the country is heading towards destruction. Because the military council is torturing and killing the people as if it were an enemy, the world is clearly seeing the suffering of the increasing number of war victims."

Similarly, NUG Acting President Duwal Shila also said at a meeting on October 24 that military and political relations between NUG and ethnic alliances are important.

"We need to increase military cooperation between the National Unity Government and the ethnic alliance organizations. There is a special need for greater political integration. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to build and maintain friendship, love and trust between the leaders of our government and the ethnic alliance leaders stronger than now."

Political analysts believe that the revolution will be successful soon if more alliances can be built between the ethnic groups and the NUG in support of the KIO president and NUG interim president's statements about improving alliance relations and unity.

U Than Soe Naing, a political analyst, said that the attitudes of the KIO chairman and NUG interim president are a guide for today's military dictatorship revolution.

"The unification of our different forces in different states and regions is the most important thing. We can end the Spring Revolution only by improving that integration. I think that the attitude of General Anban Lah and the Acting President have highlighted the direction for the victory of the Spring Revolution today."

On October 19th and 20th, military council camps in northern Shan State, The People's Defense Forces (PDF) along with the KIA attacked Nam Kuk Camp in Mongko Township and Aung Ja Camp near Laiza, the KIA headquarters. Rakhine Army (AA); U Thein Soe Naing said the fact that the alliance met together and took over the camp was a good example of unity.

Rakhine veteran politician U Pe Than also considered that this is the time when all ethnic groups should cooperate.

"We are sure that if we cooperate realistically and all cooperate and then form an alliance and fight, at this time the military council has no reason to hold back at the time when the people's support is the most. Under the same political direction (Position), it needs a lot."

Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) secretary (2) U Aung San Myint said that everyone needs to work together in a balanced way, not just armed people.

"For the fall of a military dictator, we all need to work together in a balanced way, not only armed people, but all stakeholders (Stakeholders), not only the military, but for the fall of a military dictator, we need to do ways to fight against it, politics, diplomacy, business, etc. We need to do everything.

" People's ideas need to be changed and they are currently trying to have a common political agreement. In military matters, armed men, He also said that there are cooperation with political parties.

RFA called the spokesman of the military council, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, to ask questions about the KIO's criticism that the country is in crisis and the country will be destroyed, but he did not receive an answer.

The NUG Ministry of Defense announced on October 24 that it will work with allied revolutionary groups including (KIA) to create a federal democratic union.

Currently, the military council is KIA, Ethnic armed groups such as the KNU are fighting together with the People's Defense Forces, while other armed groups are also attacking the military council in various ways.
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