Bank Mandiri's Office of Chief Economist (OCE) Group predicts that Bank Indonesia (BI) will cut its benchmark interest rate, or BI-Rate, once more in 2025.
"We see that, based on recent developments, it will likely be below our projected level of 5 percent. So, there's still the possibility of another 25 basis point (bps) cut in the BI Rate in 2025," said Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro at the Mandiri Economic Outlook Q3 2025.
This prediction aligns with Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo's projection. In an online press conference on the results of the August 2025 Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) in Jakarta on Wednesday (August 20), he signaled further cuts in the benchmark interest rate.
The BI-Rate has been cut four times since the beginning of this year, each by 25 basis points (bps) in January, May, July and August.
Bank Mandiri's Head of Macroeconomics and Financial Market Research, Dian Ayu Yustina, added that the opportunity to lower the BI Rate remains open, taking into account the direction of the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).
On the other hand, the issuance of Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) has also continued to decline in line with the stabilization of financial market conditions in Indonesia.
According to Dian, BI's policy direction is capable of supporting improvements in banking liquidity.
"Going forward, we are also still looking at several factors that will support improved liquidity conditions, which will ultimately support credit growth and economic growth," he said.
For economic growth, Bank Mandiri's economic team set a figure of 4.96 percent ( year-on-year /yoy) as the growth projection throughout 2025.
Bank Mandiri saw this potential after Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.12 percent (yoy) in the second quarter of 2025, an increase compared to the previous quarter's 4.87 percent (yoy).
