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In mid-April, rumors circulated among Chinese accounts on the X platform, claiming that the Chinese government was demanding the immediate evacuation of its citizens from Japan in response to a potential "Nankai Trough earthquake." The message quickly went viral, garnering over 10 million views within a week.
After verification, the Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) found that the Chinese Embassy in Japan did issue a statement urging Chinese people to carefully consider traveling to, studying abroad, and buying property in Japan, but did not force its citizens to return to China.
In-depth analysis:
On April 14, the Japanese certified account "のらいぬ" that posted Chinese content on X pointed out that the Chinese Embassy in Japan reminded and recommended that "Chinese citizens stop traveling to Japan and study abroad, and Chinese citizens already in Japan please return home immediately."
A week after the article was published, it has been read over 14 million times. Some people have questioned the authenticity of the news, while some Chinese netizens have responded: "This is the best thing that has happened this year!"
posted on the official website of the Chinese Embassy in Japan on April 14 , stating that Japan recently released a "Nankai Trough Earthquake Risk Assessment Report", raising the probability of a major earthquake in Japan in the next 30 years to 80%, indicating that the earthquake may affect a vast area from Okinawa in the west to Fukushima in the east, causing nearly 300,000 deaths.
The Chinese Embassy also provided five points of attention, reminding people traveling in Japan to pay attention to earthquake developments and strengthen disaster prevention awareness. The fifth point suggested: "Make safe arrangements for traveling to and studying in Japan, and carefully choose to purchase real estate, etc." However, the article did not mention any requirements for Chinese people in Japan to return home or stop traveling to and studying in Japan. The news circulating on the Internet is exaggerated and misleading information.
'Nankai Trough Large Earthquake Risk Assessment' Report
The Japanese government's Central Disaster Prevention Council recently released a report estimating damage from a possible Nankai Trough earthquake. The report suggests that a magnitude 9.0 earthquake in the Nankai Trough could result in an estimated 298,000 casualties, with a maximum of 52,000 indirect casualties. Economic losses are estimated at approximately 292 trillion yen (approximately US$2.5 trillion).
In addition, the Chinese Embassy mentioned that the probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within 30 years has increased from 70% to about 80%. This actually comes from the "Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information" page of the Japanese Cabinet Office's disaster prevention information website . The article mentioned that this data is based on the assessment of the Japanese government's "Earthquake Investigation Committee" as of January 1, 2025, and this type of earthquake occurs approximately once every 100 to 150 years.
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