A recent report stated that the negative health effects of global plastic pollution could double by 2040 if the current approach continues without radical change.
This shocking result came from a new scientific study published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health. The study was conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Universities of Toulouse and Exeter.
The study, the first of its kind to measure years of healthy life lost globally due to plastic, analyzed future scenarios for its production, consumption and recycling between 2016 and 2040. It concluded that health damage appears at every stage of the plastic life cycle, from the extraction of petroleum raw materials, through manufacturing processes, to its disposal in the environment.
These damages include respiratory illnesses caused by air pollution, increased rates of various types of cancer, and the overall exacerbation of the effects of global warming. According to the study's model, the distribution of these damages in 2040 under a "business as usual" scenario would be as follows: 40% due to greenhouse gas emissions, 32% due to air pollution from production processes, and 27% due to toxic chemicals leaking into the environment.
The remaining percentage, less than 1%, relates to reduced water availability, effects on the ozone layer, and increased ionizing radiation.
Estimates showed that annual losses rose from 2.1 million healthy life years lost in 2016 to 4.5 million years in 2040. The total cumulative losses between these two dates are estimated at about 83 million healthy life years, a figure that reflects the scale of the escalating crisis.
The study emphasized that partial solutions, such as simply improving collection or recycling processes, will not be sufficient to address this global health crisis. A comprehensive systemic change, including production reductions and integrated policies, could decrease the health burden by up to 43% by 2040.
The study's lead researcher, Megan Denny from University College London, commented: "The responsibility does not lie with individuals alone. What we really need is a radical transformation of the entire plastics system, supported by decisive government action and greater transparency from manufacturers."
Professor Xiaoyu Yan from the University of Exeter called for "urgent action to reduce the environmental and health impacts of plastics, as we no longer have time to delay."
