A silent crisis is looming in fields around the world. Farmers are facing fertilizer shortages and soaring prices, a direct consequence of the disruptions caused by the war in Iran.
At the heart of the problem is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a significant portion of the world's fertilizer trade passes. Tensions in the region have severely slowed the flow of supplies, causing delivery delays and dwindling stocks, just as the planting season is beginning in many areas.
In Kenya, the effects are already being felt. Farmers are struggling to obtain subsidized fertilizers. Queues are growing longer and available quantities are limited, forcing each farmer to make do with just a few bags. This is a stark contrast to last year, when supplies were more stable.
In the markets, rising prices are just as worrying. Traders are seeing increases almost daily, making fertilizers increasingly unaffordable for many farmers. Faced with this pressure, some are turning to alternative solutions such as organic fertilizers, which are less expensive but often less effective.
International organizations are sounding the alarm. The World Food Programme warns of an immediate risk to sub-Saharan Africa, which is particularly dependent on fertilizer imports from the Gulf. In some countries, more than a quarter of the supply comes from this region.
A reduction in deliveries could lead to higher production costs for farmers, but more importantly, a decrease in agricultural yields. Ultimately, this situation could result in higher food prices and increased food insecurity.
Less fertilizer, rising costs and weakened harvests: the consequences of this crisis could quickly extend beyond the agricultural sector alone and affect millions of consumers around the world.
