The rapid developments of the US-Israeli war on Iran are raising increasing questions about suspicious movements in global financial markets, amid indications that some investors are taking advantage of price fluctuations to make large profits.
These suspicions coincided with unusual trading activity in the stock and energy markets, reinforcing talk of possible insider trading, at a time when arms companies' profits are soaring and pressure on the global economy is mounting.
Trump’s announcement on March 23, postponing the bombing of Iran, can be considered a clear example of that hypothesis, as it was noted about 10 minutes before his statement regarding postponing strikes against Iran, there was a surge in buying on the Wall Street stock exchange, allowing investors to make huge profits after the prices of the stocks they bought jumped following the statements.
The American news website Axios confirmed that “there is an abnormal phenomenon in the financial markets that has accompanied the escalation of the war,” noting “the possibility of insider trading, which shows that some investors may have had prior knowledge of what would happen.”
Since February 28, Israel and the United States have been waging a war on Iran that has resulted in thousands of deaths and injuries, while Tehran responds by launching missiles and drones towards Israel.
Iran also targets what it says are American sites and interests in Arab countries, but some attacks have resulted in deaths and injuries, and have damaged civilian property, which has been condemned by the targeted countries.
Market manipulation
According to Axios, a “suspicious” phenomenon in the financial markets has coincided with the escalation of the war on Iran.
He added that “unusual movements in the markets, especially for oil, arms and some sensitive stocks before or at the start of the military escalation, indicate that some investors may have had prior knowledge of what was going to happen.”
For his part, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned against statements made before the markets open, calling on investors to make decisions contrary to these statements.
In a post on the platform of the American company “X” last March, he said: “Pay attention to so-called news before the market opens; it is often just a setup for profit-taking. Do the opposite.”
The Iranian parliament speaker's remarks come after observers said Trump's statements cause sharp fluctuations, as they are used to generate quick profits.
Last March, the British Financial Times quoted sources as saying that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had made a major investment attempt in defense companies ahead of the war on Iran, but the Pentagon denied this.
Global energy markets are experiencing significant fluctuations as a result of the aggression against Iran and its response to it, which has contributed to rising oil and gas prices and inflation levels, amid accelerated government measures in many countries to limit its repercussions on the economy and individuals.
Arms companies
Trading data showed that the market value of major US arms companies rose between $5 billion and $17 billion in a single day, driven by rising stock prices on the stock exchange.
According to trading on March 3, the shares of the three major companies rose in conjunction with the continuation of the American-Israeli aggression against Iran.
According to financial reports, the three major arms companies achieved a jump in their market value, with Northrop Grumman rising by about $5.8 billion to reach $105 billion, Lockheed Martin by about $5.5 billion to reach $100 billion, and RTX by $17 billion to reach $270 billion, all in one day.
Moroccan economist Mohamed Jadri said, “Every war has its whales and beneficiaries.”
He argued that “some countries contribute to the outbreak of wars and push a group of countries to participate in them in order to increase their arms sales during the war and even after it.”
He explained that what is new in the aggression against Iran under the administration of US President Donald Trump is that “the economic war is no longer hidden, but exposed.”
He pointed out that this war has contributed to the fluctuations in financial markets since its outbreak, noting that because of Trump’s statements about the existence of negotiations, oil prices decline, and financial markets recover, allowing some investors to make large profits, and then after a while it turns out that this news is incorrect, leaving a negative impact once again on the global economy.
According to Jadry, these facts show that “behind the war on Iran there are economic motives, from which some big players benefit, whether it is related to the gold trade, weapons, or financial markets.”
Jadry explained that “the ordinary consumer is the one who ultimately pays the price for this war, given that the major powers and blocs have a large margin of maneuver at the economic level.”
trader's mindset
For his part, Mohamed Yaouhi, professor of economics at Mohammed V University in Rabat (a public university), said that “every war has beneficiaries and victims” from an economic standpoint.
Yaouhi said that Trump is originally a businessman, meaning that he acts with a "businessman's mentality," where his priority is economic and commercial interests.
Mohammed Yaouhi added that “Trump knows when to speak and when to remain silent, as he prioritizes his country’s interests regardless of whether his statements are true or not.”
He continued: “Trump has his sights set on benefiting his country and its companies, whether directly or indirectly.”
He explained that negotiations with Iran would take place when American economic interests were harmed, as Trump did not care about Iran, China, or any other country.
Yaohe said that the Asian countries most affected could put pressure on the United States by abandoning the dollar and dealing in other currencies, or by threatening Japan with an alliance with Russia and China, adding that Washington cannot afford to lose Japan as an ally.
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