Iran is reorganizing its army and building its military manufacturing base faster than expected, according to US intelligence estimates reported by CNN.
Tehran has resumed some of its drone production during the six-week-long ceasefire, an indication of the speed with which it is rebuilding its military capabilities damaged by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments.
The network quoted four sources as saying that information indicates the Iranian army is reorganizing its ranks at a much faster pace than initially expected.
She added that rebuilding military capabilities, including replacing missile sites and launchers and production capabilities for key weapons systems destroyed during the current war, means that Iran still poses a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump decide to resume the bombing campaign.
This information casts doubt on claims that US and Israeli strikes have destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and weakened the Iranian army in the long term.
Especially since Iran could fully restore its ability to launch drone attacks in just six months, CNN quoted a US official as saying: “The Iranians have exceeded all the timelines set by the intelligence community for rebuilding.”
The network adds that Iran was able to activate its industrial capabilities very quickly, as a result of the support it receives from Russia and China, and also because the United States and Israel did not damage the military infrastructure, as they had hoped.
She said: “During the war, China continued to supply Iran with components that could be used in building missiles, although the blockade of Iranian ports may have limited this assistance.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS last week that China was supplying Iran with "missile manufacturing components," but declined to provide further details.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiaxun denied the claim during a press conference, describing it as "not based on facts."
Iran still maintains its ballistic missile capabilities.
On the other hand, Iran still maintains its capabilities in the field of ballistic missiles, drone attacks and air defense, despite the significant damage it has suffered as a result of the American and Israeli strikes, according to recent American intelligence assessments, which means that rebuilding military production capabilities quickly will not start from scratch.
A spokesman for U.S. Central Command declined to comment, saying the command does not discuss intelligence matters.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told CNN: “The U.S. military is the strongest in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place the president chooses.”
He added: “We have conducted many successful operations through combat commands, while ensuring that the U.S. military has a broad arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”
In April, CNN reported US intelligence assessments estimating that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers survived US strikes. A more recent report raised that figure to two-thirds, partly due to the current ceasefire, which is giving Iran time to recover launchers that may have been buried in previous strikes, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
The overall U.S. intelligence assessment may have included launch platforms that are currently difficult to access, such as those that were buried underground by the strikes, but were not destroyed.
Thousands of Iranian drones remain in operation, representing up to 50% of Iran's total capabilities.
Two former sources confirmed to CNN that thousands of Iranian drones are still in existence, representing up to 50% of Iran’s capabilities in this area.
Intelligence also indicated that a significant proportion of Iran's coastal defense cruise missiles remained intact, consistent with the US air campaign's failure to target Iranian coastal military assets despite striking ships. These missiles represent a significant asset enabling Iran to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent US intelligence reports agree that the war weakened Iran's military capabilities, but did not completely destroy them. The Iranians have demonstrated their ability to recover quickly from war and rapidly rebuild their forces after such blows.
This includes rebuilding Iran’s defense industrial base, which the commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, confirmed on Tuesday had been largely destroyed.
Recent US intelligence reports agree that the war has weakened Iran's military capabilities, but has not destroyed them completely.
Cooper testified before the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, saying: “Operation Epic Wrath has significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones, while destroying 90% of its defense industrial base, ensuring that Iran will be unable to rebuild its forces for years.”
CNN notes that Cooper’s testimony starkly contradicts US intelligence assessments of Iran’s ability to rebuild its military capabilities and the timeline for doing so, with two sources telling CNN that the intelligence does not align with what the US Central Command chief stated.
Another source familiar with recent U.S. intelligence assessments said the damage to Iran’s defense industrial base has likely delayed its ability to rebuild by months, not years.
He noted that some parts of Iran’s defense industrial base remain intact, which could accelerate the pace of rebuilding some capabilities.
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