No clear victory has been achieved by either side in the Middle East war after nearly four months during which Iran has been weakened but has managed to thwart the objectives of the United States and Israel, according to experts.
The agreement between Washington and Tehran postpones contentious issues and keeps Israel on the sidelines, paving the way for 60 days of stormy negotiations after the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on Friday in Switzerland.
The following is an overview of the positions of the main parties.
Iran is the "only real winner".
Iran emerges from its latest conflict with the United States and Israel militarily and economically weaker, having suffered heavy blows, including the killing of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the war on February 28, and the fact that his successor and son, Mojtaba Khamenei , has not yet appeared publicly.
The US-Israeli strikes continued to eliminate prominent figures, but the existing authority remained cohesive and retained significant leverage as negotiations with the United States approached.
Ross Harrison, a researcher at the Middle East Institute and author of "Understanding Iran's Foreign Policy," said, "Strategically, and geopolitically, the only real winner at this stage is Iran."
He added, “But it is a high-cost victory,” meaning that “Iran won by preventing its adversaries from achieving their war aims,” but it paid a “very high” price.
Washington and Tel Aviv wanted to pave the way for the overthrow of the Iranian regime, put an end to its nuclear ambitions, and destroy its ballistic capabilities.
Despite the change at the top of the power pyramid in Iran, Tehran achieved its goal from the war, which was “survival and re-establishing deterrence,” according to Harrison.
Berjo Ozgelik, the lead researcher on Middle East security at the British think tank RUSI, believes that Tehran’s demonstration of its ability to strangle the vital Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on its adversaries “will continue to cast a shadow over regional security.”
“Tehran will exploit this fragility to extract as many concessions as possible while prolonging the negotiations, which is a failure for Washington,” she said.
Iran agreed to reopen the strait while the United States lifted its blockade on Iranian ports, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that the country would impose a transit fee under a last-minute clause.
Under the agreement, Iran is also supposed to recover billions of dollars in frozen assets and receive a suspension of oil sanctions, while the crucial nuclear issue remains unresolved.
Amir Hanjani of the Quincy Institute in the United States said that Tehran “is getting many things that were not available to it before the war. So, by this standard, Iran can be considered to have won,” but he pointed out that in wartime, “it is only a matter of degrees that measure who lost more.”
“The Limits of American Power”
Trump hailed the long-awaited agreement as a victory on his 80th birthday, saying, “Let the oil flow.”
The US president confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz, through which before the war about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies passed, will be fully opened starting Friday.
Rising energy prices have put Americans under pressure as the November midterm elections approach, which will be crucial for Trump's Republican Party to maintain control of Congress.
Bernard Ourcade, an expert on Iranian affairs at the French Center for Scientific Research, believes that “this may be a media victory, but it is not a political victory” for the United States.
He argued that this war “showed that military force is useless” and that the United States “lost credibility” on the international stage.
This war has shown that military force is ineffective and that the United States has “lost credibility” on the international stage.
Ozgelik argued that “Washington’s rivals—from Moscow to Beijing—will study this conflict for what it has revealed about the limits of American power, and about the way it makes decisions and manages its alliances.”
She added, "These lessons will shape future crises far beyond the Middle East."
The agreement leaves the crucial issue of Iran's nuclear program open to negotiations that will last 60 days.
Trump, who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement during his first term, reiterated that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon, a goal Tehran has long denied seeking.
Israel is the "biggest loser"
Postponing a decision on the nuclear issue is a major setback for Israel, which emerges from the conflict as the “biggest loser,” according to Henjani.
Israel has lost momentum in its relations with the Gulf states, and its ability to influence its main ally, the United States, has declined.
Israeli figures from across the political spectrum were quick to condemn the agreement, asserting that it would not guarantee their country's security.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , who is about to face elections, is being heavily criticized for failing to achieve the war's objectives.
He is facing criticism from Trump, who described him as a “very tough guy” and criticized Israeli strikes in Lebanon that threatened to derail the negotiations.
The agreement stipulates an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, but it leaves several issues unresolved in Lebanon, most notably Tehran's support for the party.
Ross Harrison warned that this arena of conflict could be the “main obstacle” in the upcoming rounds of negotiations.
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