The announcement of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and launching nuclear negotiations that will extend for 60 days, has sparked a wave of speculation and doubts within American political circles, despite the welcome shown by the financial markets to the initial agreement.
The memorandum is scheduled to be formally signed next Friday, but its details remain unclear. Senior U.S. officials said the document, which was signed digitally over the weekend, is only “the first step,” indicating that “real technical discussions” will begin later this week, led by Vice President J.D. Vance.
Officials explained that details of the agreement would be published in the next few days, while US President Donald Trump said that it would be revealed “sometime after Friday,” which fueled the debate about the nature of the commitments and concessions made by both sides, according to The Hill newspaper.
According to officials, Trump and Vance signed the memorandum digitally, along with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who leads the Iranian negotiating team.
Washington has repeatedly asserted that Iran has provided assurances that it will not seek to acquire a nuclear weapon, but the issue of dealing with its current stockpile of enriched uranium has been postponed to future negotiations.
A US official said the agreement presents “two paths”: either Iran refuses to cooperate and remains under economic pressure with no ability to rebuild its nuclear program, or it adheres to the agreement and receives economic benefits in return, while providing guarantees that it will not develop nuclear weapons. He added, “In either case, it’s a win for the United States.”
Republic demands disclosure of details
The agreement raised concerns among a number of Republicans, with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham expressing concern about a discrepancy between Iran's understanding of the agreement and the interpretation of the American negotiating team.
Graham wrote on social media: “I am somewhat concerned because Iran’s view of the agreement seems to be different from what the American negotiating team is saying.”
Victoria Coates, vice president of the Heritage Foundation for National Security Affairs, said she hopes the US administration will commit to linking any easing of sanctions to Iran’s actual commitment not to possess nuclear weapons.
Several Republican senators also expressed reservations about commenting on the agreement before seeing its details. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, “I hope we will have more details before Friday,” adding that the most pressing questions concern the mechanisms for verifying Iranian compliance, the implementation of the agreement, and potential economic incentives.
A potential economic breakthrough
While reports indicated that Iran had made the release of some of its frozen assets a condition for moving to the next stage of negotiations, US officials confirmed that Washington has not yet released any Iranian funds.
The US administration stressed that any easing of sanctions or release of funds would remain conditional on Iran fulfilling its obligations.
One official said: “The more willing Iran is to cooperate on its nuclear program, verify that it is not developing a nuclear weapon, and stop supporting extremism and terrorism in the region, the greater the chances of its integration into the global economy through sanctions relief and other economic measures.”
Another official added that the United States is “prepared to release frozen funds and ease sanctions,” explaining that this could begin with limited, reciprocal confidence-building measures.
According to reports, the agreement will allow for the suspension of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports for the duration of the 60-day negotiation period, providing an important financial resource for Tehran.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could also help reduce global energy costs, after recent tensions raised concerns about declining oil supplies.
The announcement of the agreement had a positive impact on US markets, with stock indices rising and oil prices falling. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by about 5 percent, while Brent crude declined by more than 4 percent.
Trump, en route to the G7 summit in France, said that ships “have started moving through the strait, many of them loaded with oil.”
Comparisons with Obama's nuclear deal
The new agreement has brought back to the forefront comparisons with the nuclear agreement concluded by the administration of former President Barack Obama in 2015, from which Trump withdrew during his first term.
Trump had repeatedly described Obama's deal as "disastrous," arguing that it gave Iran billions of dollars without preventing it from pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
However, critics argued that the current agreement also depends on easing sanctions and releasing frozen assets in exchange for Iranian concessions related to the nuclear program.
A US official said: “We discussed the possibility of releasing frozen funds, easing sanctions, and even establishing a large fund for the reconstruction of Iran, but all of that will be contingent on the level of commitment.”
For his part, Obama said that “it is unlikely that any new agreement will be radically different or much better than the agreement we reached previously.”
Conservative writer Mark Thiessen also criticized the agreement, saying it “looks exactly like Obama’s nuclear deal,” adding that he is waiting to learn the details before making a final judgment.
Lebanon and Israel are outside of a complete understanding.
Although the memorandum includes a reference to establishing a ceasefire in Lebanon, it does not stipulate a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the areas they entered during the past months.
A US official said the ceasefire “will not be one-sided,” explaining that if Iran fails to control Hezbollah and attacks occur against Israel, the latter “will retain the right to respond and defend itself.”
For his part, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz confirmed that Israel will not withdraw its forces from certain areas of southern Lebanon, warning that any Iranian attack on Israel will be met with a “full-force” response.
These statements came at a time when field confrontations continued, with reports of an Israeli raid in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah firing anti-tank missiles and mortar shells towards Israeli positions.
The future of fees in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran announced that it would not impose fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the 60-day negotiation period, but the fate of these fees after the deadline remains undecided.
The Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that the memorandum stipulates joint Iranian-Omani management of navigation services in the strait, noting the possibility of imposing fees on ships after the end of the transitional period.
In contrast, a US official confirmed that no fees would be imposed during the negotiation phase, explaining that the goal is to find a mechanism that prevents the strait from being closed in the future, and takes into account the interests of all regional parties.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said Washington expects the strait to remain open “in the long term and without fees,” stressing that this issue will be part of the upcoming technical negotiations.
According to US officials, about 25 ships currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and the number is expected to rise rapidly to between 40 and 50 ships per day.
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