Scientists at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute predict that the Arctic seas will begin freezing as early as autumn 2026.
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According to the institute's statement, large areas of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea will be covered with newly formed ice during the first two weeks of October. Therefore, mariners should exercise extreme caution when planning operations along the Northern Sea Route.
Scientists indicate that the timing of autumn ice formation along the Northern Sea Route will not differ much from the usual average.
According to them, ice began forming between the remaining old ice masses in the Arctic region in mid-August, about ten days earlier than usual. By mid-September, the ice formation had reached the northern borders of the Russian seas.
Scientists say: "The early onset of ice formation processes in the autumn and winter months in the central Arctic Ocean suggests the possibility of seas freezing along the Northern Sea Route earlier."
According to the institute's scientists, the Long Strait in the Chukchi Sea will freeze by the end of the second decade of October, while the eastern part of the sea and the entrances to the Bering Strait will freeze before the third decade of November. In the Kara Sea, ice formation will be moderately delayed, occurring about ten days later than the usual average.
The institute's press office noted that "using the forecasts of the institute's scientists, ship owners, sailors, nuclear icebreakers and logistics companies will be able to adjust shipping schedules during the period of intense autumn ice formation, as newly formed ice can significantly affect the speed and safety of ships along the Northern Sea Route."
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