Scientists from the University of East England, the University of Edinburgh, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology summarized nearly 20 years of climate research. Their review was published in the journal Earth's Future.
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The study's authors pointed out that the evidence that current warming is caused by human activity is immeasurably greater today than it was in 2009. Therefore, they consider the reversal of the US Environmental Protection Agency's decision, which acknowledged the danger of greenhouse gases to human health, to be a mistake.
"If all the global warming of the Earth's surface since 1850 had been caused by a boost in natural solar activity, we would have expected to see warming in the atmosphere up to 50 kilometers above the planet's surface," says lead author of the study, Professor Benjamin Santer of the University of East England. "But that's not happening."
However, weather observations paint a completely different picture, showing warming in the lower layers of the atmosphere while the stratosphere above it cools. Excess carbon dioxide retains heat at lower levels and helps the upper atmosphere release it into space. Human activity has also damaged the ozone layer, a major source of heat for the stratosphere, further exacerbating this cooling.
This scenario was predicted in 1967 by American climate scientists Sokoro Manabe and Richard Weatherald. At the time, they lacked sufficient data to verify their conclusions, and their findings relied on climate modeling. Today, their prediction has been fully confirmed thanks to measurements from atmospheric sensors and satellites. In 2021, Manabe was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for developing a method to search for "climate fingerprints."
After 2009, scientists found a human fingerprint not only in temperature but also in ocean salinity, snow cover, rainfall patterns, and seasonal shifts. The brief slowdown in temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century is explained by natural fluctuations, not by the disappearance of the problem, as the ten hottest years on record in several climate databases occurred after 2009.
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