Fearing a "political price" Biden has not decided his position on the classification of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards

Washington avoids making any clear statement about the fate of the classification of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which has become today one of the most important obstacles to achieving any progress in the talks on returning to the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015. Preliminary analyzes indicate that Biden has not decided his position on the matter yet.

US President Joe Biden seems to be heading towards maintaining the "terrorist" designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Tehran requires removing this organization from the US sanctions list to return to full compliance with the international agreement signed between it and the major countries on its nuclear program.

"Each side hopes that the other will be the first to soften their position," said Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran at the International Crisis Group.

Negotiations began a year ago in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that was supposed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Under former US President Donald Trump, the United States exited the nuclear agreement in 2018 and re-imposed economic sanctions on Tehran, which responded to the US move to gradually liberalize the restrictions imposed on its nuclear activities.

Today, Biden wants Iran to return to the agreement, provided that it fully abides by its terms.

Although some positive indicators were initially observed, the talks faltered, and no round of negotiations has been held in the Austrian capital since March 11.

A draft settlement is still on the table, after reaching solutions to most of the thorny issues.

The final node obstructing the talks revolves around the designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as Iran demands the removal of this organization, which includes elite forces, from the US list of "foreign terrorist organizations".

Change direction

The Iranians justify their position that Trump included the Revolutionary Guards on the list to intensify pressure on Tehran after withdrawing his country from the agreement concluded in 2015. However, the Americans deny the validity of this matter and stress that there is no link between the two.

And this week, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said, "If Iran wants to lift sanctions beyond what is stipulated in the nuclear agreement, it must respond to our concerns that go beyond the nuclear agreement." He stressed that Iran should negotiate these issues "in good faith and cooperation."

The United States asserts that it does not negotiate in public and has avoided making any clear statement about the fate of the classification of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

But Price's announcement seemed more like an affirmation that the US administration is hardening its position regarding the removal of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, after opinions were divided between diplomatic circles close to US military leaders and the political wing in the White House.

The first team supports taking an initiative towards the Revolutionary Guard, considering that removing this force from the list of organizations designated by Washington as terrorist will not practically have major repercussions, while the White House fears Republican criticism ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November.

The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, had given a preliminary indication of the toughening of the US position by saying that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards were, in his opinion, a "terrorist organization".

"I am not very optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement," he told NBC News.

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius stated that Biden is in the process of excluding the removal of the Revolutionary Guards from the list of organizations designated as terrorist.

The Biden Administration

"I don't think the final decision has been made, but the president is definitely leaning in that direction," preacher said.

Vaez expressed his hope that a settlement would be reached to remove the Revolutionary Guard from the list of terrorist organizations, while keeping its foreign arm, the Quds Force, on the list.

But US officials note in private that this settlement is no longer on the table.

A preacher admits that any initiative towards Iran related to such a sensitive issue will be "exploited by opponents and opponents to crucify the Biden administration" and to denounce its weakness in the face of a sworn enemy of the United States.

Therefore, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard supports other opponents of the United States such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Iraqi armed factions, which makes matters more complicated, given that the Iranian organization is accused of launching attacks against American soldiers or American interests in the Middle East.

Many officials in Biden's Democratic camp oppose removing the organization from the list.

"I think the issue is the political price that Biden doesn't want to pay," one preacher said, but the analyst warns that not reaching an agreement will also have a heavy political price.