Mainland China and Hong Kong have lifted strict prevention and control measures for some time, but foreign trade figures have not seen any improvement. As a major export point for Chinese products, Hong Kong's latest import and export performance is not satisfactory, with the largest single-month decline in the value of exports in 70 years. The latest figures reflect that the trade war has hit China's foreign trade, and Hong Kong has to share the burden of the consequences. It also shows that the era of China's economic growth driven by trade surplus has come to an end.
Hong Kong's exports in January fell 36.7% year-on-year, the largest drop in 70 years
Hong Kong's import and export performance has not seen improvement in the new year after the epidemic, and the decline has not stopped. According to the latest figures released by the Census and Statistics Department on Monday (February 27), the overall value of imports and exports in Hong Kong continued to expand in January. The value of exports was 290.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7%. After September 1953, the largest decline in 70 years, the value of exports shrank to the level of February 2020.
The import situation has not improved. The value of imported goods in January was 316.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%, which was also worse than market expectations. It was also the largest single-month decline in 56 years since September 1967. Months later at least.
The value of Hong Kong's overall exports to Asia fell by more than 40%. Exports to Japan and Taiwan shrank the most, with year-on-year decreases of 50% and 45.1%, respectively. The value of exports to mainland China also fell by 43.7%. In addition to Asia, Hong Kong's exports to Europe and the United States experienced a double-digit decline. Among them, the value of exports to Germany dropped the most, reaching 40%. The value of imported goods also fell for seven consecutive months, and the value of goods imported from mainland China dropped by nearly 40% year-on-year.
The spokesman of the Hong Kong government said that due to the weak external environment and the Spring Festival holiday, the value of Hong Kong’s merchandise exports in January fell further, but it is expected that the Chinese economy will accelerate growth in the future. The restrictions on cross-border land freight between China and Hong Kong have been lifted, and the Reduce stress.
Commentary: The trade war hits China's foreign trade and Hong Kong has to share the burden
Li Shimin, a financial commentator who is familiar with the situation in China and Hong Kong, told this station that Hong Kong's latest import and export performance is worse than market expectations. It is affected by many factors. The poor global economic environment is one of the reasons, but it is not the most worrying factor. He believes that the Sino-US trade war has not eased, and the impact of many companies withdrawing their supply chains from China has surfaced, making Hong Kong, which was too dependent on the Chinese market in the past, bear the consequences of China's foreign trade deterioration.
Li Shimin: "Sino-US relations have been deteriorating for five years. Due to geopolitical factors, other countries have shifted production to other places, making China's exports weaker. It is not that Shenzhen Yantian Port has robbed Hong Kong's import and export business, but Shenzhen itself has no business, which reflects that Hong Kong relies solely on China's exports, which has now become a negative factor for Hong Kong's economy, and now is the beginning of deterioration." He believes that this will not only happen in the import and export industry, but also affect Hong Kong's economy. It is difficult for the financial industry to agree with the Hong Kong government's optimistic forecast that the future economic growth can exceed 3%.
Opinion: Hong Kong imports and exports and Shenzhen port slump signal China's trade surplus era is over
Economist Commander said that Hong Kong and Shenzhen are separated by a border, and Hong Kong's import and export performance is of indicator significance for observing China's foreign trade situation. He said that Hong Kong's entrepot trade was busy in the past, which was closely related to China's status as the world's factory. Most of China's products exported to foreign countries will be re-exported and settled in Hong Kong, forming a pattern of shops in the front and factories in the back. The deteriorating import and export figures in Hong Kong and the empty container rate in Shenzhen port are enough to prove that China's export orders have declined across the board. Not only has China's status as the world's factory been lost, but the old path of relying on trade surplus to drive economic growth has come to an end.
Commander: "Before the trade war between China and the United States, Shenzhen used to be very busy exporting and there were not enough boxes. Now it is the opposite, and imports are more than exports. This trade war severely restricts China's exports, and the goods are forced to A large number of sales are slow, and foreign trade is now struggling. In the past, the channel for raising funds for economic development by earning foreign exchange from trade surpluses may be blocked in the future. In fact, China is going from a country with a large trade surplus to a trade deficit. ."
Commander said that China insisted on eradicating the epidemic and missed opening up simultaneously with the world. It also accelerated the flow of foreign trade orders to India and the East Asian and South markets. In addition, China's demographic dividend has expired. It is only pessimistic about the prospect of China's foreign trade development. It is difficult to be optimistic.