The funeral of Pope Francis will be held at the Vatican on Saturday, with at least 60 world leaders expected to attend. However, the Vatican, which maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan, has rejected Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's request to attend. Scholars analyze that the Vatican's refusal, fearing provocation to China, suggests that the successor pope's "China approach" will determine the future of the China-Vatican-Taiwan triangle.
Pope Francis passed away on the 21st. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te paid his respects at the funeral parish at the Taipei Archbishop's Office on the morning of the 23rd. Taiwan had originally hoped Lai would follow the precedent set by former President Chen Shui-bian in April 2005, when he attended the funeral of Pope John Paul II. However, after negotiations, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the afternoon of the 23rd that former Vice President Chen Chien-jen would represent him at the Pope's funeral.
Scholars explain why Taiwan's proposal for a presidential visit to the Vatican was declined due to concerns about China.
In an interview with Radio Free Asia on the 23rd, Chang Meng-jen, chair of the Italian Department at Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan, said, "Previously, President Chen Shui-bian was able to attend the funeral of John Paul II, and President Ma Ying-jeou was able to attend Pope Francis' inauguration. But now President Lai is unable to go. This may be because China's diplomatic strength and international influence are much greater now than they were more than a decade ago. Furthermore, the Vatican originally hoped that Taiwan and China could coexist peacefully. If it ultimately decides not to allow President Lai to go, it is probably because it wants to avoid overly provoking China."
Catholic and Knight of the Holy Sepulchre of Jerusalem Kong Lingxin mentioned in an interview with Radio Free Asia that when Chen Shui-bian attended the funeral, it attracted international attention and caused great displeasure in Beijing. The Vatican cannot follow suit this time, probably because it is afraid of a backlash from China.
Kong Lingxin believes the Vatican will undoubtedly invite heads of state to the Pope's funeral. There's speculation about whether Trump would meet with Xi Jinping if he went, but that's highly unlikely. He's the leader of China and an atheist. China and the Vatican don't have diplomatic relations, though they're developing toward quasi-diplomatic ties. Pope Francis specifically invited two Chinese bishops to meet at the Synod of Bishops. The Vatican has been making overt overtures to curry favor with China. The State Council is concerned about improving relations with China and may decline the Taiwanese president's attendance if Beijing exerts pressure.
Professor Zhang Jialin of the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University bluntly stated that the Chinese Communist Party will try to put pressure on the Vatican. Furthermore, Secretary of State Pietro Parolin's diplomatic system has close ties with the Chinese Communist Party, even more so than with Taiwan and the Vatican.
However, Zhang Jialin estimates that China will at most send clergy to Francis' funeral, and will not send official State Council, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or senior CCP officials. He predicts that his successor will continue to recognize the Vatican-China-Taiwan triangular relationship framework established by Francis and the Vatican-China agreement.
Fifteen days after Pope Francis' death, a battle between pro-China and anti-China factions erupts in the election of a new pope.
Speaking of the popular candidates for the new Pope, Zhang Mengren, who was awarded the Italian Star - Knight Medal, pointed out that based on the analysis of the list by European media, the 70-year-old Parolin, the Secretary of State during Francis's tenure, has a high voice.
Zhang Mengren said, "Parolin was a key participant in leading Pope Benedict XVI's 2005 policy of engagement with China, continuing into the Provisional Agreement on Bishop Appointments signed with China during Pope Francis's tenure. The media considers him the most loyal to Pope Francis's line, having played a leading role in relations with China for two decades. Unlike the Pope, Parolin employs a more tactful and subtle approach when implementing progressive strategies. If elected, Parolin would be the new Pope who most closely adheres to the Pope's line."
In 2022, there were reports that Parolin said the Vatican planned to move its permanent office from Hong Kong to Beijing, which caused controversy.
Kong Lingxin also said that Parolin has been implementing a China-oriented policy for a long time, which is very familiar to him. If he is elected, he should continue Francis' policy.
However, Kong Lingxin mentioned, "If Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of the Diocese of New York, is elected, he would be less pro-China, as he has dealt with several cardinals involved in sexual harassment."
In addition, Zhang Mengren mentioned that 69-year-old Italian Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, Pope Francis' special envoy to the Russo-Ukrainian war, is also highly regarded. He has visited China and communicated with China's Russian-Ukrainian envoys, which should touch upon Sino-Vatican relations. If he is elected, it is believed that he will maintain Pope Francis' China policy.
Zhang Jialin noted that Pope Francis, who was born in Central and South America, unexpectedly won the election, suggesting that the new pope might come from a developing country rather than Western Europe. The global trend of Catholic faith is that it is gradually declining in established democratic and liberal countries and in Europe, while growing in developing countries such as China, Central and South America, and Asia.
If there's a chance of an African pope, Zhang Mengren noted that three cardinals have been mentioned: Peter Turkson of Ghana, Robert Sarah of Guinea, and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Turkson, 76, is known for his progressive stance on social justice, the environment, and human rights, and has worked closely with Pope Francis in the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development. Besungu has been vocal on social issues concerning the poor.
About 135 cardinals are eligible to vote for the new pope
According to regulations, the new pope is elected by the College of Cardinals, which is composed of the highest-ranking clergy of the church, all men, and all appointed by the pope.
Zhang Mengren mentioned that there are currently 252 cardinals in the world, but only those who are under 80 years old the day before the Pope's death have the right to vote, which is equivalent to 135 people. Although cardinals over 80 years old do not have the right to vote, they can be elected as Pope and can also participate in general meetings before the secret meeting to discuss church issues and debates.
Within 15 to 20 days of the pope's death, the Dean of the College of Cardinals, 91-year-old Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, will summon the cardinals to Rome to elect a successor. Only eligible cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel for the closed-door election.
Zhang Mengren explained that the first 33 rounds of elections were conducted by a two-thirds majority. Starting from the 34th round, a two-thirds majority will be used, or the top two vote-getters will be selected for the vote. In each round, if a result is not reached, the ballot papers will be burned, and black smoke will rise from the church chimney until the result is known. This will allow believers around the world to discern whether a new pope has been elected. Only after the votes have been cast can all cardinals leave the church.
Zhang Mengren stated that of the 135 electors, 108 were appointed by Pope Francis, 22 by Pope Benedict XVI, and 5 by Pope John Paul II. Looking back, most previous electors were elected within ten rounds, such as Francis in the fifth, Benedict XVI in the fourth, and John Paul II in the eighth.
Zhang Mengren mentioned that among the cardinals, those from Europe account for the largest proportion of 39% in the electoral college, with a total of 53 voters; there are 114 cardinals in total, which also accounts for the largest proportion among the total number of cardinals (45.2%).
Did China regret not having set foot on missionary missions in China and miss the opportunity to establish diplomatic relations during the tenure of the most concessionary Pope?
Under Pope Francis's urging, China and the Vatican signed the "Provisional Agreement on the Appointment of Bishops" in 2018, agreeing that China would nominate bishops, with the Pope selecting them. However, implementation has been less than ideal, with the Pope granting only a formal consent. Furthermore, in November 2022 and April 2023, China appointed bishops in Shanghai and Jiangxi, respectively, without Vatican authorization. The Vatican issued a statement on November 26, 2022, accusing China of violating the agreement. However, the agreement has been renewed three times to date, with the announcement last October that it would be extended from a two-year term to a four-year term.
Zhang Mengren said that Pope Francis is the Pope who has been the most tolerant and concessionary to China, but China is wary of the Pope's religious power surpassing that of Chinese leaders and insists on the so-called "Sinicization of religion". Before the Pope's sudden death, the last mile of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Vatican was not completed.
Within the Vatican, opposition to Francis's sharing of bishop appointment authority with Beijing is considerable. Zhang Mengren analyzed that the question now depends on whether the new pope is willing to continue to recognize the "Vietnam model," compromise with China's "Sinicization of religion" policy, and continue to share bishop appointment authority with China. The "Vietnam model" involves signing agreements with non-diplomatic allies and communist countries in exchange for local governments' commitments to refrain from improper government interference in church affairs.
Zhang Jialin added that over the past decade, Pope Francis has publicly blessed the Chinese people no less than a dozen times, whether visiting the Philippines, South Korea, or flying over Chinese airspace, and has expressed his desire to visit China. He even mentioned it last year when he visited Singapore, but rarely mentioned Taiwan. However, China was worried that the Pope's reputation would affect the Communist Party's rule and did not accept the Vatican.
Zhang Jialin pointed out that China's underground church used to be very supportive of the Vatican, but Francis's demand that the underground church be open has greatly harmed believers: "Xi Jinping has arguably gained the most from his interactions with this pope. He has defused the Chinese underground church like an unexploded bomb. Underground church priests and bishops have been defeated one by one. Some who refused to obey and join the Patriotic Church have been placed under house arrest or even disappeared."
Zhang Jialin predicted that the new pope's global Catholic layout involves whether his values uphold freedom, democracy, and human rights. If he is similar to John Paul II, it will be good news for the Republic of China. If he is like Pope Francis, Taiwan-Vatican diplomacy will be difficult.
President of the Taiwan Bishops' Conference: Where there is no religious freedom, we all hope for freedom.
Regarding the new pope's approach to China and Taiwan-Vatican relations, Archbishop Chung An-chu of the Archdiocese of Taipei told this station: "From the Church's perspective, he will definitely take good care of us, so we are very sure that the relationship between us and the Vatican should remain good."
Regarding the criticism that the Pope has betrayed China's underground church, Zhong Anzhu said that we need to look at the matter in the long term and it is difficult to comment now. Perhaps the elected Pope will have a different approach, so we will wait and see.
Kong Lingxin stated, "For the Vatican, the diocese of Taiwan is still small, with only around 300,000 Catholics. There aren't that many to minister to, and the number of Catholics isn't growing as fast as in mainland China, where there are at least 10 million Catholics."
Kong Lingxin said that the first preparatory meeting was held on the 22nd, and hundreds of cardinals arrived one after another, and the election rules have not yet been fully decided.
