Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military exercises, for the first time this year, are based on a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027. On Thursday, the first-ever field exercise of the All-Society Defense Resilience Committee took place in Tainan.
Last year, Taiwan's Presidential Office established the "Society-Wide Defense Resilience Committee." Its goal is to build capacity to respond to major disasters and the threat of authoritarian expansion through collaboration between the central and local governments, incorporating private resources. This aims to comprehensively enhance the resilience of national defense, livelihoods, disaster prevention, and democracy. Thursday's field drill in Tainan, through a small-scale exercise, tested disaster response capabilities, including large-scale evacuations, shelter placement, and the expansion of emergency medical facilities.
The Russia-Ukraine War: The importance of social stability and continued operation
In an interview with this station, Ho Cheng-hui, co-founder of Taiwan's civil defense organization and Black Bear Academy, stated that defense is divided into national defense, civil defense, and, most fundamentally, psychological defense. Awareness and resistance are the foundation of everything. Taiwan has only truly realized the importance of resilience in recent years. In the past, it was often viewed as a military or wartime issue, limited to a few or those with specific identities. During the Russo-Ukrainian and Israeli-Kazakh wars, the stability and continued operation of social sectors, and even their further development, were crucial. He said, "There are approximately 200 civil defense organizations and units throughout Taiwan. How to effectively integrate these civilian forces with the reform of the government system is a challenge that Taiwan faces."
War is a challenge faced by all people
Shu Xiaohuang, an associate researcher at the Institute of Chinese Political-Military and Operational Concepts at the Taiwan think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, told Taiwan that former US Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson proposed that China might take military action against Taiwan in 2027, the so-called "Davidson Window." Taiwan has set goals and planned various military exercises and scenarios based on this. Beyond the military, defense resilience is also crucial. This not only supports military operations, but also requires society as a whole to cope with the potential impact of war, such as ensuring the continued operation of essential services such as healthcare, utilities, and communications, and the effective mobilization of government agencies.
"War is not just the Ministry of National Defense's business, but a challenge faced by the entire nation. It requires the participation of all citizens in preparation, but whether society is currently adequately prepared remains a big question," said Shu Xiaohuang.
China continues to harass Taiwan, so be careful to prevent it from turning into a war or an accidental clash of guns.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense announced that from 6:00 AM on the 25th to 6:00 AM on the 27th, a total of 20 Chinese military aircraft and 8 ships were detected, including 12 that crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered the southwestern airspace. Separately, China's Xichang Satellite Launch Center also launched a carrier rocket on Wednesday, which passed over central Taiwan, but posed no threat as it was outside the atmosphere.
Separately, Taiwan's naval fleet command announced Thursday that the Zhonghe warship collided with the Chinese fishing vessel "Minlianyu 61756" approximately 45 nautical miles (9 nautical miles outside restricted waters) off Taichung Harbor on the 27th. No personnel on either side were injured, and the damage to the vessels does not affect navigation safety.
A Taiwanese warship has experienced a rare collision with a Chinese fishing boat. Amidst heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, could such an incident escalate into an accidental conflict in the future? Ho Cheng-hui analyzes that whether it's China's unrestricted warfare or the so-called gray zone warfare often employed by China, Russia, and other socialist countries, the key is to create conflict. These aren't traditional military standoffs, but rather exploitation of civilian maritime conflicts, including collisions at sea, illegal fishing, and even, as recently demonstrated, the severing of Taiwan's submarine cables, all typical examples of gray zone warfare.
"The purpose is to challenge your bottom line and test your response capabilities. China may not be ready for war yet, but maintaining pressure on Taiwan and other countries will help it maintain the initiative in conflict situations and test its opponents' defense capabilities in all aspects. When the situation is favorable, it can escalate the situation; otherwise, it can reduce the conflict," he said.
Shu Xiaohuang believes that the Taiwan Coast Guard Administration and mainland China's maritime agencies have long-term experience in cooperation and confrontation. The two sides have formed a certain tacit understanding when dealing with incidents such as the detention and release of personnel at sea. They usually resolve them peacefully through coordination to avoid damaging the existing cooperative relationship.
However, in the face of more threatening military activity, Taiwan needs to possess enhanced detection and discrimination capabilities, capable of real-time monitoring of the surrounding sea and air situation, as well as the dynamics of Chinese naval and air force bases and the mobilization of supplies, in order to assess the possibility of a "transition from exercise to combat," that is, whether a military exercise will turn into actual war. Shu Xiaohuang stated: "If China launches a surprise attack, can Taiwan complete the transition of command systems, troop deployments, and combat readiness adjustments within hours, effectively resolving a small-scale conflict? If it fails to do so and escalates into a full-scale war, it will pose a significant challenge to Taiwan."
The Yaya incident tears apart Taiwan's free and democratic society, challenging its resilience
China is waging a propaganda and psychological warfare campaign against Taiwan amidst its gray zone harassment, stirring up unrest in Taiwanese society. Recently, Chinese influencer Yaya, who advocated for unification by force on TikTok, was revoked of her family-based residency status and ordered to leave the country, sparking a sharp divide between pro-unification and pro-independence Taiwanese society.
A group of 75 scholars, including Chen Peizhe, an academician of the Academia Sinica in Taiwan, issued a joint statement, claiming that Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has been using populism to rally supporters since taking office, and that Taiwan’s space for freedom of speech has been rapidly compressed. They also called on the Democratic Progressive Party government to stop and proceed.
However, another Academia Sinica academician, Zhu Jingyi, wrote a column in CommonWealth Magazine, analyzing Yaya's deportation as irrelevant to free speech. He drew inspiration from the US Supreme Court's TikTok ruling to infer future risks, thereby restricting TikTok's current freedom to use social media platforms to gather information. He suggested that Yaya could pose a national security risk within Taiwan in the event of a future "attack on Taiwan," citing the need to "deal with this person now." Zhu's opinion was widely shared on social media, sparking heated debate.
Ho Cheng-hui believes that Taiwan's cherished free and democratic society, including freedom of speech, is a core interest of the Taiwanese people. However, the CCP sees only the weakness of democratic society as something it can exploit. He believes that free and open societies should face such challenges head-on, rather than deliberately avoid them. In incidents like this one involving the Chinese Communist Party, the emergence of diverse opinions and vigorous debate is a strength of a free society, far from being a cause of so-called "fragmentation" or "division." On the contrary, failing to confront challenges and waiting for more extreme measures when they escalate is a major failure for democratic society.
